The US presidential election will pose the greatest political risk to the world in 2024 no matter who wins, with institutions of the most powerful democracy certain to take a beating, the Eurasia Group said Monday.
In an annual report, the political risk consultancy said that the November 5 election "will test American democracy to a degree the nation hasn't experienced in 150 years," a reference to the country's civil war.
"The United States is already the world's most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem no matter who wins," it said.
"With the outcome of the vote essentially a coin toss (at least for now), the only certainty is continued damage to America's social fabric, political institutions and international standing."
If Donald Trump -- currently the Republican front-runner -- again loses to President Joe Biden, the real estate mogul will likely once more allege massive fraud and "incite widespread intimidation campaigns" against election officials and workers, the report said.
The United States in a Biden second term could also face an "unprecedented political crisis" if Trump goes to jail on one of myriad cases in which he is charged, although large-scale violence remains unlikely, it said.
Biden has cast his campaign as a struggle to save democracy against Trump, whose supporters attacked the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, in hopes of stopping the formalization of Biden's victory.
WORLD BRIEFING: April 27, 2024
If he loses, Biden would be expected to concede. But many Democrats will also view Trump as illegitimate and some will refuse to confirm his victory citing the constitutional prohibition against anyone who has "engaged in insurrection" taking office, the Eurasia Group said.
Meanwhile, a second-term Trump would be expected to "weaponize" the US government to go after rivals and crush dissent, it added.
The Eurasia Group ranked the violence in the Middle East as the second greatest global risk, with the Israel-Hamas war "likely to be only the first phase in an expanding conflict in 2024."
The third greatest risk was Ukraine, with the study predicting the country in 2024 will in effect become partitioned with Kyiv struggling to retake remaining areas seized by Russia.
It said Ukraine would face another major blow if the United States elects Trump, who opposes the billions of dollars in US aid to Kyiv.
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Comments (10)
yeah right trumpty dumpty saved the world.jan 6th ring any alarm bells?
This article is worthless. No one knows who the candidates will be yet. There might be two prominent personalities, there might be three.
I know who the best candidate for President is, and that is Nikki Haley. I hope America agrees.
only dictators like pooty boy do fake elections,he puts himself in power,he dont even have any opposition,get with the program no one in the west would even get past the strict voting controls,its not even possible to do a fake count,they are all very fair elections no funny business going on at all,there never has been a dodgy election anywhere in the west and it will never happen,if you loose bad luck,see you in another 4 years,you could be right we could even see Camila harris running,trumpty dumpty would be last in the running,why go there again,two women running would make a nice sea change.
Just make sure the vote counting is irrefutable, then let the American people decide.
No hanging chads, no faulty software - get your shit together and make sure the count is solid.
Then all must abide with the result. End of problem.
Chill-out! Neither Biden and Trump will not be front runners. Nikki Haley and Michelle Obama will be. American politics and social unrest is common when you mix a dozens of races. In Europe your all of the same race more or less.
@Will, most countries on earth now have now have all mixed nations,migrants from all over the world also helped to build such countries,been like that for over 50 years,Europe is the same,i can name some dictator countries that dont like change but i wont the more mixed the population is the better it works
jan 6 th was a very serious day in americas history but i think those extremist who took part in it were just looking for an excuse to do something,if not jan 6th they would have made trouble elsewhere,and they were extremist no need to sugar coat that one,people got killed on that day,must never be allowed to happen again.
Trump won in 2020. Biden is a fake President. Thank Biden for the wars.
@ron, nope trumpty dumpty lost and he was a poor looser,and another nope biden did not start anything,most of americas wars happened when republicans were in power,and they lied on the world stage about them,when they could not win those wars they dragged other countries into them,biden has kept a very level head actually,does george bush x2 ring any bells?
the election was rigged,they stole my votes and gave them to the other guy,i am going to take my bat and ball and go home,i cant stand loosing,i need that jan 6 stuff to stop following me,it wasnt me i did not say it,my supporters did that stuff on jan 6th,it wasnt me,i did not ask them to try overturn the election,honest i did not not,why does that jan 6th stuff keep coming up i cant get away from it,jan 6th jan 6th jan 6,th its like a virus i cant make it go away,Jan 6th jan 6th
now what was it that happened on jan 6th,what was it happened when georgy boy spent many trillions on a false war,nope we cant talk about that its election time,lets pick on that border wall again,it cant talk back,that might work,it worked the first time,can you get pootie on the phone we could put up a wall there to keep the polar bears out,we could also stop the white alaskan fox from seaking past the border
uurr ummm no sir it was not me who started that on jan 6th,nothing to see here lets not talk about it,can someone make jan 6th go away it follows me everywhere