Meloni Lands in US as Europe’s Trump Card

Giorgia Meloni has arrived in Washington for a crucial bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump – but she’s carrying more than just Italy’s agenda.

Within 24 hours, Meloni is scheduled to meet both Trump and JD Vance – with the vice president making an Easter visit to Rome on Friday.

“No pressure, as you can imagine,” the Italian prime minister said with a smile the day before departing for Washington.

The joke landed softly, and so did her tone: unusually cautious, even uncertain. “It’s a difficult moment,” she admitted. “We’ll do our best – let’s see how it goes.”

But behind the modesty lies a power play. Meloni’s rapport with Trump is no secret – but it may well be a weapon.

Meloni has long seen Trump as a political muse, attending his rallies and echoing his worldview. Trump, in return, has called her “a fantastic leader and person.” She was the only European leader invited to his second inauguration.

Any display of intimacy today is likely to polarise Europe – though many in Brussels are cautiously optimistic.

“We are pretty relaxed,” one EU diplomat said, “and if Meloni uses her personal chemistry with Trump for the benefit of the EU, the better.”

“I think for the EU it’s key to see that she sticks to our joint approach, especially when it comes to trade,” another diplomat added. “In the ideal scenario she can leverage her privileged position with Trump for a positive outcome for all of us.”

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The Italian government has strongly emphasised that Meloni’s camp is fully aligned with Brussels on the mission. Indeed, her phone calls with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen have been frequent – the latest occurring just before takeoff, sources close to Meloni said.

What’s on the table at the White House?

Meloni and her ministers have agreed to raise several points with Trump: tariffs, defence spending targets under NATO, increased imports of US liquefied natural gas, industrial cooperation, policy coordination on China, and support for Ukraine.

In a recent interview with Euractiv, Carlo Fidanza, leader of Meloni’s Brothers of Italy in the European Parliament, emphasised that Meloni’s main goal is to reduce, and ideally eliminate, US tariffs on European industrial goods. Addressing misconceptions around VAT and America’s distorted calculations of Europe’s trade surplus will also be crucial.

Avoiding Trump’s tariffs is especially critical for Italy, which is already close to an economic recession and whose export-oriented industries are directly affected by Trump’s protectionist policies.

Trump’s 25% auto tariff, which came into force last month, is likely to trigger a steep reduction in the $5.2 billion (€4.6 billion) worth of Italian vehicles that were sold to the US last year. 

Trump has also repeatedly threatened “major” tariffs on pharmaceutical products, which could severely harm Italy’s export-oriented pharma industry.

These acutely Italian interests could see Trump and Vance seek to sway Meloni off her European mission with Italy-specific offers.

“It is likely that Trump will try to tempt Meloni, to divide Europe,” said Cinzia Alcidi, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Policy Studies.

“The question is what he can put on the table that can be so tempting.”

Trump’s Chinese offer

But beyond economics, the bigger picture looms: Europe’s strategic position amid shifting global alliances.

Fidanza interprets Trump’s recent tariff suspension as signaling the US’s deepened interest in a cohesive Western economic front against China’s industrial dominance. From Rome’s perspective, Brussels’ recent overtures to Beijing look dangerously naive.

Alcidi said it was also conceivable that Trump could propose tariff concessions in exchange for the EU adopting a tougher line on China – and that it was unclear how Meloni would react if such an offer were made.

“Certainly, Meloni cannot make a promise on behalf of the EU,” Alcidi said, noting that trade is strictly a European Commission competence. However, Meloni “certainly has more affinity with the US than with China”, she added.

Such affinity is arguably as ideological as it is economic: Italy exported €14.6 billion worth of goods to China last year, compared to €61.7 billion to the US, according to UN data. 

Three possibilities

Trump is, of course, highly unpredictable – and his Oval Office press conferences with world leaders are notoriously erratic.

But there are three plausible outcomes from Meloni’s foray into the White House, according to Lorenzo Castellani, a political analyst at LUISS University.

First, Trump might produce vague declarations, much as he did with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. 

Second, Meloni could extract from Trump a list of concrete asks – perhaps regarding China or defence – that she can carry back to Brussels, boosting Italy’s diplomatic capital within the EU.

The third scenario, Castellani says, is the most ambitious – and least likely. Meloni secures sectoral exemptions from tariffs, particularly in areas like wine or luxury goods, in exchange for immediate increases in military spending and firmer EU-wide positions on China – though convincing all EU partners would remain complicated.

Beyond Meloni’s visit, analysts and European officials overwhelmingly agreed that it is critical for the EU to continue to speak with one voice to the Trump administration.

“It is clear that… Europe must remain united,” Alcidi said. “It’s the only thing that can give the EU weight in this crazy geopolitical situation.”