A few points around the proposed May 15 Istanbul peace talks which some hope could bring an end to the war in Ukraine.
First, we don’t even know if they will happen.
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Putin initially proposed the talks on May 15 in Istanbul, perhaps trying to pretend to the world, and Trump particularly, that he actually wants to negotiate a peace at this time, but assuming Zelensky would reject them, setting up another spat between Zelensky and Trump.
Zelensky initially assumed his back would be covered by European allies who this weekend called for talks only after a 30-day ceasefire was agreed – and threatening sanctions on Russia if it failed to agree. But Trump pulled the rug out from Europe by telling Zelensky to comply with Putin’s terms and meet him in Istanbul even without a ceasefire agreement first.
Zelensky agreed, assuming Putin would blink and not attend. And, as yet, we do not know if Putin will attend – he has held several calls with President Erdogan, presumably trying to set new prior conditions for his attendance.
Second, Türkiye is probably the most logical site for these talks as Erdogan is trusted by both sides – the same cannot be said for Trump.
Therein Trump’s team thus far seemed to have picked up and run with all Putin’s negotiating points, and the Ukrainian side thinks that Trump is willing to sacrifice Ukraine up to Putin as the price of prizing Russia away from China.
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Zelensky is going along with Trump’s demands for talks thus far as Ukraine wants to drawdown as much of US military supplies as possible before walking away from talks if the terms cross their red lines – they want cast iron security guarantees as the minimum condition for peace.
Putin probably suggested Turkey for peace talks as he wants to start off where he left off in the Antalya peace talks from March 2022 – as they were massively beneficial towards the Russian position.
Things have changed somewhat from that time, and I think Turkey’s own position is now closer aligned with Ukraine. Turkey certainly does not want a deal that rewards and promotes future Russian aggression and strengthens Russia’s position in the Black Sea. Turkey has since developed quite close military support ties with Ukraine – Baykar, et al. Because of the latter, Ukraine trusts Turkey.
Third, the two sides are still miles apart and with little prior Sherpa work conducted before these talks, the clear danger is that it all descends into a public slinging match – meant more for external consumption and not to advance actual peace.
Both, I think, will be aiming to influence Trump or leave the other to be blamed by Trump for failing talks, with the price being arms supplies to Ukraine, and sanctions on Russia dialed up or down depending on who is seen by Trump as the guilty, or otherwise, party.
Sad, but it’s more like an episode of The Apprentice all set up to massage Trump’s ego while real peoples’ lives are on the line here.
Reprinted from the author’s tashecon blog. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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