Russian casualties in Ukraine have recently reached a new milestone: one million, which is five times higher than those in all Russian/Soviet wars since WWII combined with around 200,000 fatalities, top US military analysts assess in a latest analysis of the war, Kyiv Post’s Washington correspondent reports.
Seth Jones and Riley McCabe, Ukraine experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, argue that Russia’s poor battlefield performance presents several vulnerabilities the US could better exploit.
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According to them, Russian forces have failed to effectively advance along multiple axes in Ukraine, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment, and suffered remarkably high rates of fatalities and casualties.
Since January 2024, Russian forces have seized less than 5,000 square kilometers (1,930 square miles) of new Ukrainian territory, which is less than 1% of the war-torn country’s territory and smaller than the state of Delaware. This territorial gain falls short of Moscow’s objective to greatly expand its control of Ukrainian territory, the experts highlight.In return, Russia has lost significant military equipment, including over 1,200 armored vehicles, nearly 2,000 tanks, and more than 3,200 infantry fighting vehicles, compared to Ukraine’s losses.
“These are losses just since last January, but to compare that to Ukraine’s losses, really gives you a sense of how inefficiently the Russians have been fighting,” McCabe says.
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The experts also highlight a historical perspective on Russian casualties, noting that while the Soviet Union had only lost 96 casualties during the invasion of Czechoslovakia (1968), the numbers of losses increased significantly in more recent conflicts, such as Afghanistan (14,000-16,000 Soviet killed in action) and the internal struggle in Chechnya (12,000-25,000 casualties).Given this background, the CSIS experts also argue that the narrative that Russia today holds all the cards is “incorrect,” as the US has significant leverage through sanctions and military assistance.
The analysts highlight two vulnerabilities for Russia: economic issues, including labor shortages and limited economic growth options, and vulnerabilities in the oil and gas sectors.The question is, whether Washington effectively use its available tools, including sanctions and military aid, to support Ukraine, the analysts added.
According to them, a veto-proof Russia Sanctions bill, which includes provisions for military assistance to Ukraine, could continue to increase Russian casualty levels.
“US sanctions, including secondary sanctions, are expected to have a significant impact on the Russian economy, with bipartisan support in Congress for such measures,” Jones concluded.
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