Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is losing steam just weeks after it began, despite record numbers of attacks along several fronts.
Moscow launched the operation in May, after months of building up troops and refining tactics. At first, Russian forces made their fastest gains in months, especially in parts of eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region. But now, experts say, momentum is slipping.
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“The capacity to start something new and distinct really isn’t there for the Russians right now,” said Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, told The Telegraph. “The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they’ve been doing in spring.”
According to The Telegraph, Russian troops have failed to break through defenses in Sumy, near Ukraine’s northern border. Ukraine says it has recaptured some ground there, halting Russian advances entirely.
“The Russian advance in the Sumy border zone has been stopped as of this week, and the front line has been stabilised,” Ukraine’s top commander, Oleksandr Syrsky, said Thursday.
He added that based on the results of fighting in May and June, Russia’s latest “summer offensive” from its own territory is fizzling out, much like its failed 2024 attempt to break through in the Kharkiv region.
“Instead, our earlier decisions are now delivering results. The Russian advance in the Sumy border zone has been stopped as of this week, and the front line has been stabilized,” Syrsky said.
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To bolster regional defenses, Syrsky said a special defense group has been established for the region commanded by Brig. Gen. Oleh Apostol. The priority tasks include strengthening fortifications, expanding engineering barriers, and preparing local communities for potential attacks.
Russia is also struggling in Donetsk, where attempts to seize key towns like Kostiantynivka have stalled. Despite having more soldiers and drones, experts say many Russian troops are poorly trained.
“They’ve been unable to sustain that pressure, due to their stock of refurbishable weapons, specifically artillery and armored vehicles,” said Nick Reynolds, a battlefield expert at the Royal United Services Institute.
Fighting continues in hotspots like Pokrovsk and Toretsk, but Russia has not taken a major city in months.
Analysts warn that by spreading forces thin across Ukraine, including new pushes in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, Moscow risks overstretching its army.
“They celebrate like Soviet-era wins over these small towns and villages, which don’t have any real strategic value,” said Michael Clarke, a defense analyst.
Russia has increased missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, with deadly attacks in Kyiv, Dnipro, and Odesa in recent weeks. But Ukraine’s military and international experts say Russia’s broader strategy – aimed at exhausting Ukraine rather than achieving quick breakthroughs – is falling short.
“The Russians seem to have accepted that this is just the way warfare is, even though it’s not true,” Reynolds said.
Despite capturing a small but valuable lithium deposit in Donetsk, Russia’s offensive has so far failed to deliver major victories.
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