Lukashenko Resists Kremlin Pressure to Open New Front Against Ukraine

Russian leader Vladimir Putin is intensifying pressure on Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko to deepen Belarus’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, according to the latest assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

According to ISW, the Kremlin is pushing Lukashenko to allow Russian forces to make greater use of Belarusian territory, including launching drones at Ukraine from Belarus and potentially expanding the frontline westward to force Kyiv to divert troops from active combat zones to the Belarusian border.

The report cited The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), which said Russian and European officials believe Moscow is pressuring Lukashenko with threats of reduced financial support if he refuses to cooperate.

A former Russian intelligence officer cited by the newspaper said the Kremlin wants Belarus to play a more active military role in order to stretch Ukrainian defenses.

Despite growing pressure, ISW assessed that Lukashenko is still attempting to avoid full military involvement while preserving Moscow’s support.

This assessment was reinforced by developments along the Belarus-Ukraine border.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian-installed signal repeaters in Belarus, used to guide long-range Russian drones deeper into western Ukraine, stopped operating on June 22 after Kyiv warned Belarus to dismantle them by June 26 or face Ukrainian strikes.

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Russia has been waging a full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine since 2022 and so far all attempts at negotiations have failed to end the conflict.

Zelensky said it remains unclear whether Belarus fully dismantled the equipment or merely suspended its use.

ISW added that Belarus’s apparent compliance with the ultimatum suggests Lukashenko is still resisting the Kremlin’s efforts to fully drag Belarus into the war.

The think tank also said Lukashenko has consistently avoided allowing Belarusian forces to directly join Russian military operations in Ukraine since 2022 and has largely refrained from adopting Moscow’s rhetoric portraying Ukraine as a direct threat to Belarus.

At the same time, Russia continues signaling little interest in genuine peace talks.

Senior Russian officials, including Dmitry Medvedev and Sergey Lavrov, reiterated on June 24 that Moscow remains committed to its original war aims and is unwilling to negotiate on terms involving a frozen frontline or meaningful compromise.

ISW said the Kremlin continues promoting narratives portraying Russia as open to negotiations while rejecting proposals that fall short of Ukraine’s effective capitulation.

According to the report, economic pressure inside Russia continues to grow, particularly due to fuel shortages in Moscow and other regions.

Russian authorities have reportedly begun emergency measures to stabilize gasoline supplies, while Russian airlines warned of worsening aviation fuel shortages. According to Reuters, Moscow is now negotiating with Kazakhstan to purchase around 50,000 tons of gasoline.