ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 21, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian forces conducted a large-scale series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 20 to 21 that included over 400 drones as Russia continues to launch significantly larger strike packages in June and July 2025 than in January to May 2025.
• Ukraine’s Western partners pledged additional military and financial assistance to Ukraine during a virtual meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (the Ramstein format) on July 21.
• British Defense Secretary John Healey announced during the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on July 21 a “50-day drive” to arm Ukraine on the battlefield and help push Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.
• Ukrainian officials discussed Ukraine’s increasing defense industrial capacity amid ongoing European aid announcements.
• Ukraine officially proposed a third round of negotiations with Russia amid speculation in the Ukrainian and Russian informational spaces. Russian officials continue to feign interest in good-faith negotiations, despite failing to propose or agree to a third round of negotiations.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Authors: Jennie Olmsted, Angelica Evans, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, and Kateryna Stepanenko.

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