‘This Is a Serious Threat’: Ukraine’s Spy Chief Warns Russia Could Launch New Mobilization

Russia could carry out a new military mobilization, posing a “serious threat,” Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said in an interview with Apostrof. 

Budanov recalled that Russia carried out a partial mobilization in 2022, then took extensive measures to avoid repeating it. But he warned that Moscow could still mobilize troops again.

“Could the Russian Federation carry out a mobilization? Yes. Could it, unfortunately, be a serious threat? Yes. It would be painful for Russia, but it is realistic. And this threat, unfortunately, exists,” Budanov said.

He added that sending large numbers of draftees (soldiers serving mandatory military service) to the front would not be effective, but Russia could still increase troop numbers through mobilization, sending them into combat at high risk.

Budanov also dismissed the idea that public anti-war protests would stop Moscow. He noted that negative sentiment did appear in 2022, which is why Russia quickly tried to halt mobilization efforts, but said it would not stop Russia’s war machine.

“Negative public sentiment will appear if mobilization starts. It did in 2022, which is why they quickly tried to stop it. But will it stop the Russian machine? No, it won’t,” he said.

Russia conducts conscription twice a year, in spring and fall, requiring eligible men to serve for one year. While conscripts are usually not deployed to active combat, Moscow has relied on financial incentives, pardons, and other measures to recruit civilians for the war in Ukraine.

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Ukraine to Begin Phased Demobilization by End of 2026

Ukraine’s defense ministry said troops who have served the longest, including soldiers mobilized in 2014 and 2022, will be prioritized in a phased demobilization process.

After the unpopular September 2022 mobilization, which prompted more than 261,000 Russians to flee the country, President Vladimir Putin has avoided another large-scale draft.

Recent reports from Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance indicate that Russia plans to step up mobilization in temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories, targeting conscripts and even detainees.

The Center for Countering Disinformation also warned that so-called “gamer units,” reportedly trained to operate drones faster, may be part of a broader hidden mobilization effort.