US Negotiator to Europeans: Russia Amassing Missiles Faster Than It Fires Them

The top US negotiator on Ukraine has warned European diplomats that Russia is now producing missiles faster than it fires them, building a growing stockpile of long-range weapons that could “deliver a knockout blow” to Ukraine.

According to The News York Times (NYT), citing two Western officials, Daniel Driscoll, the US Army secretary and a key figure in the Trump administration’s peace push, delivered the warning at a meeting of Western diplomats in Kyiv last week.

The officials, who spoke to NYT, said his message was clear: the missile buildup increases the urgency for a negotiated settlement.

Russian missile production has expanded sharply. According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Moscow is now assembling roughly 2,900 cruise and ballistic missiles annually – including Iskander, Kinzhal and Kalibr systems – outpacing its rate of fire and allowing it to accumulate “hundreds” of additional missiles.

“The launches are not keeping up with production,” said Fabian Hoffmann, a missile expert at the University of Oslo.

Russia, he said, may be replenishing stocks for conflicts beyond Ukraine or to further pressure Kyiv.

The expanding arsenal poses multiple threats: deeper strikes on Ukraine’s fragile energy grid, intensified pressure on depleted air-defense systems, and potential attacks or coercion against other European states, as per the report.

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Ballistic missiles in particular are outpacing Ukraine’s ability to acquire interceptors such as Patriots or SAMP/T systems. Hoffmann warned this trend could soon leave Kyiv vulnerable: “It is of great concern.”

Western officials say the stockpile marks a major shift from earlier in the war, when missiles were often fired immediately upon production. Debris from a July 2024 strike on a Kyiv children’s hospital showed components manufactured only months earlier.

Russia has since expanded its industrial base and diversified suppliers by importing North Korean and Iranian weaponry.

Driscoll’s warning comes as Washington continues to push a revised peace plan after significant pushback from Kyiv and European capitals. The Trump administration maintains that Russia currently has the upper hand on the battlefield, and that delaying negotiations could worsen Ukraine’s strategic position.

Hoffmann cautioned that halting the war would not push Russia to slow its buildup – if anything, it could accelerate.

“If Russia gets away victoriously from this war, they might feel very adventurous in the future and have a massive stockpile of long-range armaments,” he said.

Notably, the US has told European allies that long-term security guarantees for Ukraine will be discussed only after a peace agreement is signed – despite the Trump administration publicly insisting they must be part of the deal, several European diplomats said.

According to Politico, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told European officials on Tuesday that Washington wants a ceasefire in place before committing to security guarantees.

Another diplomat said Rubio described the guarantees as a top priority but indicated they should be handled separately and that the overall package should be finalized quickly.

The US shared its initial 28-point peace plan with Kyiv in mid-November, proposing territorial concessions, limits on Ukraine’s military, and a permanent bar on NATO membership.

After urgent talks in Geneva with EU and Ukrainian officials, the draft was cut to 22 points. Kyiv has rejected several key provisions, including handing over non-occupied Donbas, capping its military at 600,000 troops, and abandoning its NATO bid.

Washington had earlier pushed for Ukraine to accept the plan by Nov. 27, with Trump saying Zelensky “will have to like it.” Privately, US negotiators warned that Ukraine risks losing more territory in the coming months. Trump later hinted timelines could shift if progress continues.

Zelensky has proposed traveling to Washington to discuss the most sensitive terms, but Trump said he will meet both Zelensky and Putin only when a ceasefire is close. He has instead sent special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow and tasked US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll with maintaining contacts with Kyiv.