- Logistical issues faced by Russian forces in southern Ukraine have likely become more acute following damage to the Kerch Bridge on 08 October 2022. Repair efforts are ongoing, and it is open to some traffic.
- However, a large queue of waiting cargo trucks remains backed up near the crossing.
- Russian forces operating in southern Ukraine are likely increasing logistical supply flow via Mariupol in an attempt to compensate for the reduced capacity of the Kerch Bridge.
- With the Russian presence in Kherson strained, and the supply routes through Crimea degraded, the ground line of communication through Zaporizhzhia Oblast is becoming more important to the sustainability of Russia’s occupation.
- The city of Melitopol is a junction of supply routes and hosts a major Russian aviation presence.
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