Russia Avoids Mentioning Mobilization Before Autumn’s Elections, Ukraine Says

Russia has been avoiding the mention of mobilization in public messaging ahead of autumn’s State Duma elections, according to Andriy Chernyak, an officer from Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR).

Speaking to state media Ukrinform, Chernyak said Kyiv still acknowledges the risks of a major mobilization in Russia despite the lack of public messaging.

“The Kremlin will now avoid the topic of mobilization as much as possible and say that it will not happen because they are preparing for the elections,” Chernyak said.

“If enemy leaders and propagandists now let the population understand that it will happen, it is not known how the Russians will react to this,” he continued.

“According to the estimates of the military intelligence of Ukraine, the probability of mobilization in Russia after the elections remains.”

In June, a Russian lawmaker said Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin might announce a new wave of mobilization in autumn, after the State Duma elections, with senior officials in Kyiv sharing similar assessments.

Regarding the current manpower situation within the Russian military, Chernyak said Russia simply needs to find enough troops to fill its existing capacity.

“They have enough training centers, they have enough existing training grounds. And mobilization is needed to strengthen those areas that already exist,” he said.

“That is, they do not need a new infrastructure for mobilization, they just need ‘cannon fodder’ that will go to war,” he added.

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The comments largely align with a recent update from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU), which said Russia has failed to meet its annual recruitment target by mid-2026.

The SZRU said on Tuesday that only 195,000 military contracts were signed in Russia compared to the 204,500 target. The agency added that Russia lost 196,700 troops in 2026 alone – including around 115,300 “irretrievable” losses, 80,400 injured, and around 1,000 captured by Ukraine.

Chernyak added that he saw no signs of an imminent invasion from Belarus.

“As of now, there are no signs of any strike groups being prepared on the territory of Belarus. There are about 50,000 Belarusian army personnel there, there are Russian support units, but we do not see any threatening activity,” he said.

“Of course, within a few weeks, the Russians can transfer their forces there, but this is not currently recorded,” he added.

On July 10, the spokesperson for Ukraine’s State Border Service (DPSU) said Kyiv observed continued military infrastructure buildup in Belarus along the Ukrainian border without troop concentrations.

However, he added that Ukrainian intelligence believes Moscow’s efforts to draw Minsk into the war are continuing.