Russia is preparing to mobilize 500,000 personnel this autumn, with plans to rapidly deploy some conscripts to the eastern front while training others for a potential new offensive axis, a Ukrainian official reported on Saturday, July 18.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council, stated that the Russian military command intends to use the mobilized forces to address immediate personnel shortages and to establish a new operational direction.
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“Russia is preparing a mobilization of 500,000 people for the autumn. Some are planned to be thrown into battle in the first two weeks to plug holes in the East, while others will be trained for at least a month for the potential opening of a new front direction. This is the plan of the Russian Federation,” Kovalenko wrote on Telegram.
He noted that the upcoming autumn and winter periods will involve intense infantry combat operations. According to Kovalenko, Russian officials, including First Deputy Chief of Staff Sergei Kiriyenko and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, have assured the Russian leadership that this mobilization effort will secure a military advantage.
Recruitment shortfalls and election concerns
The warning of an impending large-scale mobilization follows assessments by Ukrainian military intelligence that Moscow has previously avoided the topic to mitigate domestic political risks ahead of the autumn State Duma elections.
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Andriy Chernyak, an officer with Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (HUR), stated that the Russian government actively suppresses public discussion of mobilization. “The Kremlin will now avoid the topic of mobilization as much as possible and say that it will not happen because they are preparing for the elections,” Chernyak noted, adding that the probability of mobilization remaining high post-election.
Chernyak emphasized that Russia possesses the necessary infrastructure to handle a large influx of personnel. “They have enough training centers, they have enough existing training grounds. And mobilization is needed to strengthen those areas that already exist,” he said.
The anticipated mobilization push correlates with reported shortfalls in Russia’s contract military recruitment. A recent update from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) indicated that Russia failed to meet its annual recruitment target by mid-2026. The agency reported that only 195,000 military contracts were signed in Russia, falling short of the 204,500 target. The SZRU also estimated Russian personnel losses in 2026 at 196,700, including approximately 115,300 “irretrievable” losses and 80,400 injured.
Regarding potential new axes of attack, Chernyak stated that Ukrainian intelligence currently observes no strike groups forming in Belarus. While approximately 50,000 Belarusian personnel and Russian support units are stationed there, there is no immediate indication of an offensive buildup, though forces could be transferred within weeks.
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