Schrödinger’s cat is a famous thought experiment dating back to 1935. It posits a conundrum of whether something can both exist and not exist at the same time. It serves as a pretty good starting analogy to discuss elections held in Russia, not least because the cat experiment is something that is purely hypothetical.
Elections in Russia are strange affairs. The population is given the opportunity to participate in an exercise of mass delusion, a game of make believe that they are involved in a democratic competition. Whether that competition is for the presidency or a seat in the national parliament (the Duma) or for local office, the fact is that the candidates are only selected by the party in power (or, otherwise, barred from running or killed) and the outcomes are predetermined.
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Nevertheless, a charade like this is planned for Russia in the middle of September. Keen observers are probably aware that Russia is going through some things at the moment, and so some advisors close to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin are suggesting that they call the whole thing off. Or postpone it, which amounts to the same thing. So at this point it’s a Schrödinger’s election. It may exist, and at the same time it may not.
The conundrum for the Kremlin, as ever, is how they spin things. Going ahead with the elections is fraught with danger. With anger seemingly rising among the masses over restrictions to internet access and over the lack of gasoline available – all as a result of Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine – it is believed (though polling in a dictatorship is never a real benchmark of anything) that his approval level is dropping fast.
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If the elections (for what they’re worth) are called off, that would mean having to admit that there’s something very seriously wrong in the Russian Federation. Like acknowledging that the war and the consequences of the war are having a very real impact on fortress Russia. That, especially at the hands of little brother Ukraine, is an admission of weakness.
It is important to look at why Russia, a dictatorship, even bothers with the charade of elections in the first place. There are a few reasons for this.
From the perspective of the leader, it gives him some degree (don’t scratch the surface too much) of legitimacy. Putin can claim that as he took 88.48% of the vote the last time his minions were asked to cast ballots, his 25 years in power is all justified.
For the next echelons down, to be anointed in this way means that they have joined the in-crowd. They are one of the chosen few who will now be enabled in their pursuit of riches through public office, and as their candidacies are hand-picked by The Party, they will in turn show every loyalty to The Party by endorsing whatever policies the dictatorship deems necessary. It looks like representative democracy, but in their hearts all the parliamentary deputies actually care about is how much they can steal on the one hand and staying alive through absolute obedience on the other.
Putin could tell people that the election was held and they all voted when no such thing actually happened and state propaganda would try to find a way to sell the fairy tale.
If Putin (because nobody else decides this or anything else) does decide to let the polls open, at a time of waning popularity, we will be treated to all manner of falsifications and fabrications to arrive at the result he demands of the election commissions. Having been given a pre-set “result” to announce after “voting” is over, we will see ballots being stuffed into voting urns en-masse. What won’t be seen is the counting of the ballots where indications of support for unsanctioned candidates are disposed of. Less visible still will be the electronic manipulations that will take place between the physical voting sites and the election commission HQ in the capital where United Russia will have their victory announced to the shock of nobody.
Another feature of the elections – if they go ahead – will be the international legitimacy supposedly conferred on the process by a group of observers from other countries. They’re a staple over the last few runnings of this show. It’s not hard to predict how the observer mission will be made up. If you type into Google “list of far-right extremist political forces in Europe” you’ll get a rough cast. They’re just kissing the ring of the boss of bosses as required to pay back the support he has invested in their neo-fascist movements.
Another scenario, and as this is Russia literally anything is possible, Putin can just cancel the elections and issue a presidential decree that election results had been calculated based on previous “voter support” and as such United Russia get to keep their supermajority in the Duma. Heck, he could even tell people that the election was held and they all voted when no such thing actually happened and state propaganda would try to find a way to sell the fairy tale.
At this point, nobody knows, so it is quite the Schrödinger’s quagmire. What is for certain is that three months is a lot of time for the war to have an effect on how things will play out. As it is, the effects on the Russian population are growing exponentially. The gas shortages that started in a few regions now extend across almost the entire country, albeit they’re still sporadic now, but they will become constant.
The exodus from Crimea and the cancellation of the vacation season there as Russians continue to lose their grip on the peninsula, that will not go unnoticed by would-be voters. By the time we get to September, will the Kerch Bridge still be standing even?
Between now and polling day, how many more times will Ukrainian drones swarm over Moscow and St. Petersburg? These are really the only two Russian cities Putin cares about and he has tried to shield them from this war by limiting recruitment from them and letting them live in a bubble whereby their lives were unaffected by the genocidal invasion of their neighbors. They’re not shielded any more. Not figuratively, certainly not literally.
In the Schrödinger’s cat thought experiment there was another factor at play. A radioactive substance. The state of the radioactive substance is undetermined until it can be measured. Therefore whether the cat would be alive or dead is unknown until the box is opened and a determination can be ascertained. Ukraine is the radioactive substance. Putin is the cat. The state of the radioactive substance is being measured in real time. The box will be opened soon.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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