2024 will be a tough year. Just look at my recent post outlining my outlook on this year’s geopolitical issues. And now that we have the results from Iowa, it’s clear that Donald Trump will be on the ballot this November.
Yet, as I have been considering the results from Iowa this week, a clear narrative has emerged regarding Trump's bid for re-election. I had figured this would be the case, but now we have data to back it up: Trump faces a challenging path to victory, marked by a lack of broad support within his own party and especially among independent voters.
The Iowa caucuses have traditionally been a barometer for presidential campaigns, offering early insights into a candidate's appeal and organizational strength. Although Trump won the state with about 51% of the vote, his margin of victory in Iowa is somewhat misleading.
The turnout figures tell a story of deep-seated division and lack of widespread enthusiasm. Trump's campaign hoped to assert a strong mandate from these caucuses. Instead, they managed to mobilize only about 15% of the electorate.
This turnout comprises the roughly 8% of staunch Trump supporters, but it's crucial to note that it also includes the roughly half of Iowa Republican caucus-goers who voted against Trump's candidacy.
To fully understand the implications of the Iowa results, we need to consider them within the broader context of recent elections. The 2020 presidential election, along with the 2022 midterms and various 2023 races, point to a consistent pattern: Trump and the MAGA Coalition's inability to mobilize Republican voters on a large scale, let alone sway independent voters.
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Let’s not forget that in 2020, Trump lost by over 7 million popular votes and by a significant margin in the Electoral College, with Georgia voting for a Democrat for the first time since 1992.
A critical aspect of Trump's dwindling electoral prospects is his relationship with the broader Republican Party. While he has solidified his grip on the MAGA base, this has come at the cost of eroding his support among the broader Republican establishment.
There's an observable rift within the party, with many Republicans distancing themselves from Trump's brand of politics. Although we are now seeing gutless Republican politicians being forced to endorse Trump against their wishes, Mitch McConnell and other Senate leaders have thus far refused to support him.
This internal party division is a significant hurdle for Trump, as it hampers his ability to present a united front and mobilize the party's full electoral power, which he will need to overcome his extreme unpopularity among independents.
Independent voters often play a decisive role in general elections, swaying the results in closely contested states. Trump's polarizing style, the controversies surrounding his presidency, and his numerous criminal offences have further alienated this crucial demographic. His appeal to independents appears to be diminishing, a trend that I predict will be catastrophic for his general election prospects.
In conclusion, the early indicators, historical trends, and current political dynamics suggest to me that Trump faces an uphill battle in the 2024 presidential election. His campaign will need to overcome significant challenges in uniting the Republican base, appealing to independents, and mobilizing voter turnout in a way he could not do in Iowa.
Without a substantial shift in strategy and public perception, Trump's chances of securing a victory seem increasingly remote. Despite everything I have said thus far, it will still require all our collective efforts to make sure Trump is denied another term. I look forward to working with you all over the next eleven months to defend our democracy.
Reprinted from Alexander Vindman ‘s blog Why It Matters. See the original here.
The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.
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Comments (3)
troll Jack,
I don't know what colour shirt Alexander Widman wears, but I certainly support his comments re the rump you seemingly have a psychological 'hard on' for.
At any rate I'm sorry to hear Kyivpost is not meeting your journalistic standards troll jack.
It would a shame for you to leave as we all so enjoy the energy and enthusiasm you exhibit in your comments.
Me...I'm liking Kyivpost just fine. I'm especially having fun playing 'whack a mole' with the MRGA / MAGA trolls assigned to bash this site and push prospective political leaders that would dash Ukraine's hope of maintaining sovereignty.
It is well known the anecdote of the headline "The Times" used in the early XX century, when a huge storm at The English Channel cut all connections between UK and the continent. The headline was "Storm at The Channel. Europe isolated". Now the headline could be "Trump wins. The rest of the world isolated".
It is a pity, but the usual Trump supporters write again in favor of the greatest US scunbag the world has known. Saying that Trump is good for Ukraine, like for the rest of the world means either you are a Putin supporter or you have no idea what you are talking about. Trump was a disgrace for the US and for the rest of the world, and a huge present for dictators like Putin, Maduro, Siryan President, etc. etc. Venezuelan and Syrian opposition were massacred, like Kurds, because all of them believed in Trump and in the end they were all traitioned by Trump. Now the only hope for Putin is Trump. Trump is a total illiterate, know nothing about History, Geography and International Politics, like most of his supporters, that have never left their county, some of them believing that the Earth is flat. Trump will be a disaster for the US and the rest of the world, and a great success for Putin and especially China, as most countries that now are in doubt, in South America and Africa, will join China, and the EU will lead in favour of China, all against US interests. With Trump is sure China will become most powerful power, and US an isolated country, with no good relations even with its neighbours Canada and Mexico.