I attached a few really good threads on the war in Ukraine (from people who know what they are talking about), but the upshot is in recent days Ukraine has won some incredible and striking military victories which could just spark the early end to this war.

The scale of the Ukrainian victories are immense – Ukrainian forces pushing 50-60 km ahead in a few days.

We all thought the main offensive was in Kherson, as did the Russians, who moved troops South from Donbas, weakening their lines there, only for the Ukrainians to exploit that by launching a surprise offensive in Donbas. They look set to surround as many as 10,000 Russian troops there who are I think on the point of collapse. Notable that the Russian general commanding the “Western” theatre – Donbas in essence – has been captured so safe to say Russian forces there are surrounded, leaderless and likely close to rout/collapse.

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This has been tactical genius by the Ukrainians – likely helped/planned by the Yanks (reminds me of operation Storm in Serbo-Croat war in 95′).

As people are writing this could mean not only the Ukrainians won the Battle of Kyiv, but now the Battle of Donbas, and next stop Kherson, even Crimea.

Indeed, after weeks of softening up with HIMARS and seeing the fate of their brethren in Donbas we could see a similar Russian military collapse around Kherson which, quite incredibly would leave Crimea open to full scale attack – something which could never have been imagined before Feb 24.

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024
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ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

Total collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine is now possible, even likely I would say, what options does Putin have?

The conventional military campaign has failed – he has no more troops to readily deploy.

The energy war has failed.

Peace?

WMD escalation? Had the chance but has bottled it so far.

My guess is hastily convened peace talks – the longer Putin waits the worse it is going to get for him.

Reprinted from @tashecon blog. See the original here.

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