OPINION: NATO Summit – All Hail to Trump?

One thing is certain – the NATO summit this week will be a Trump love fest from European NATO nations, and led by Mark Rutte, the NATO Secretary General and celebrated Trump whisperer.

Rutte likely will have his PowerPoint presentations ready to big up US President Donald Trump’s role in increasing European defense spending. He will also be highlighting Europe’s defense buying power and that much of the increased defense spending in Europe will go to buying US kit – and securing hundreds of thousands of US jobs.

All the above depends on whether the Balogun FIFA red card scandal does now overshadow the whole summit.

The reality is a bit different, I think.

Privately, no European leader really trusts the US anymore to abide by NATO’s Article 5 defense and come to its aid if attacked – most likely by Russia. Trump has changed all that – and the US, or Trump’s self-interest –rather than historical treaty obligations, is what counts. If Russia attacks Europe, Trump likely will decide the US response based on how these plays for him, is there a win to be made, and what’s the downside? That might not be what is suggested in the current NATO treaty.

Remarkably now many Europeans are asking whether Europe shares the same values and interests with a MAGA-led America. Frustrations there have been driven by Trump’s seeming appeasement of Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, his getting the US, and world, into an unwanted war in Iran and pushing the export of a socially illiberal, extreme far-right agenda.

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Understanding that there is now an existential risk from Russia to Europe, and with the US likely AWOL, the key words privately being spoken by European policy makers are all about getting an autonomous defense capability and as soon as possible. Europe has a $25 trillion economy and, over time, surely can build a military and a military-industrial complex to provide that defense autonomy. But given the neglect of the past, that will take time – likely five to 10 years to complete the job. In the interim, Europe needs to buy time and that depends on two things:

First, Ukraine holding out in the war against Russia as long as possible. And that explains how Europe has now upped its game in funding Ukraine and in terms of broader defense cooperation.

Second, the US continuing to sell Europe defense kit as long as possible. In theory, with Europe spending as much as $1 trillion on defense, it should be a huge long-term market for US kit. But that’s if Europe really still views the US as a reliable ally. It does not now, though, hence the move to defense autonomy and ASAP.

So given the above, the Rutte strategy is to say whatever fluff he needs to say to and about Trump to keep him on side long enough to keep the defense sales coming – and at least not to side with Russia against Ukraine. I cannot believe that Rutte believes any of the nice things he actually says about Trump. Surely not?

President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Ukraine, will be given some quality time at the NATO summit to impress on Trump that Ukraine is winning in the war with Russia. Trump loves a winner and the aim will be to suggest to Trump that his big peace win globally could be now in giving Ukraine the final edge to either ensure a military victory over Russia or force Putin to negotiate.

A Ukrainian victory against Russia would come close to the Reagan/Thatcher win against the Soviet Union and would certainly mark Trump’s place in history.

The other story of this summit will be the likely Trump–Turkish President Recep Erdogan love fest. The two get on well – as both are transactional in outlook. Trump looks at Erdogan as someone who gets things done. Therein, what Erdogan delivered for Trump in Syria was peace that has allowed US troops to withdraw – and the quid pro quo likely will be a deal sorting out the F35/S400 mess.

The NATO summit is likely to be a huge win irrespective for Erdogan and Turkiye. Türkiye’s now considerable prowess in terms of its military and military industrial complex will be on show – seemingly everyone, but particularly Europe – wants to be friends with Turkiye.

For Europe, Turkiye offers solutions in terms of its bid to move quickly to autonomous defense capability. Turkiye has specific capabilities in drones, but can provide scale in producing tanks, planes and ships for Europe. Alongside that, it has the largest army in European NATO, second now only to Ukraine and Russia in Europe.

So Turkiye now appears key to any credible defense of Europe without the US – arguably joined there by Ukraine, Finland and Poland.

Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog. See the original here.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.