OPINION: Turkiye Helps Secure the NATO Loose Cannon

The Erdoğan administration had a great NATO summit this week in Ankara.

For me, that was always going to be the case, as Turkiye does a great conference, a reflection of Turks’ great hospitality, it’s in their DNA.

 But in addition, here Erdoğan seems to have a great personal relationship with President Trump, who was always going to be the loose cannon at this particular, and indeed any NATO summit. And Erdogan managed to secure (at least for the time being) the big Trump canon, which was perhaps the biggest achievement of all for the summit.

In explaining this, a lot can be put down to the fact that Erdoğan has that personal chemistry with – or respect from – Trump.

Partly, I think this is because Trump likes winners, and Erdoğan has an incredible history of winning elections and holding power in Turkiye. Trump seems envious of Erdoğan’s grip on power, something which he himself likely aspires to, and how Erdoğan manages the opposition, the media in Turkiye, and election results. 

Indeed, Erdoğan, like Trump, faces a two-term presidential limit looming in 2028, but no one believes that Erdoğan will be constrained by that. Trump likely – undoubtedly in my mind – himself craves a third term if it can be engineered.

Trump also likes the fact that Erdoğan is transactional and can compartmentalize relations with friends and potential foes – a prime example here is having good relations with NATO allies, but also with President Putin in Russia. Trump has great relations with Putin, ironically, now less so with NATO allies.

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Importantly though for Trump, Erdoğan brings him solutions, whether that is in Syria, or supporting Trump’s Gaza peace plan, helping negotiate a ceasefire deal with Iran, or over Ukraine, and then gifting Trump the icing on the cake of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal, and TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity). 

Much of the hard slog for the latter deal had already been done by the prior Biden administration and the Europeans, but the Erdoğan genius was in playing to Trump’s sociopathic side and then gifting the eponymous transport route, and acclaim for the peace.

Trump, also, I think, respects Turkiye’s hard-power military and tech-industrial capabilities – its battle-hardened military and its tech lead in areas such as drones.

The contrast for Trump with the limp, woke Europeans, with the doing and delivering Turks is striking.

The big win for Erdoğan at the NATO summit was the clear statement from Trump that Turkiye will be welcomed back on the F-35 program, and that CAATSA sanctions will be lifted. A deal seems to have been made to allow Turkiye to sell the S400 air defense systems, which originally triggered the CAATSA sanctions, to UAE. 

Ending CAATSA sanctions will likely move the lights for other NATO members to fast-track defense industrial cooperation with Turkiye from amber to green, from prior red under the Biden presidency.

The irony of the deal struck this week in Ankara is that it lays bare to all that CAATSA sanctions were not really about the security risks of operating the S400S alongside F35S, or other NATO fighter jet platforms, but were instead political. 

The UAE operates US fighter jets, so you would think the same technical/security risks would trigger CAATSA sanctions – but no, they seem to be getting a pass. The US, though, seemingly has green-lighted the sale of S400S by Turkiye to the UAE – all this is dependent on Russia also agreeing (let’s see on this final point).

 So we are left to draw the conclusion that Turkiye faced CAATSA sanctions because; a) the US wanted to send a message to all NATO allies not to buy Russian kit, and to buy American; b) the US did not like the direction of travel of politics in Turkiye under Erdoğan, or its geopolitical reorientation - a move to a more multi vector policy, but particularly its warm relationship with Russia. The latter was perhaps seen as disloyal to the Transatlantic Alliance given developments in Ukraine, and the annexation of Crimea in 2014. c) Perhaps as a reflection of point b, but also heavy lobbying by Israel to take Turkiye out of the F35 project. 

And on this latter point let’s see if this latter lobbying still stymies Türkiye’s hopes on both CAATSA and the F35 issue. The combination of Moscow and Tel Aviv might still get in the way of Turkish ambitions here.

But going back to the NATO summit, Erdoğan was able to use his special relationship with Trump to keep the US president on his best behavior, well, almost. The Trump canon was kept relatively well secured at least while it was in Ankara.

Trump seemed relaxed and a noncombatant in the closed NATO leaders’ meetings – perhaps subdued by the joint efforts of the Trump Whisperer Rutte and the ultimate host Erdoğan. Trump was gifted the wins over increased European defense spending, announcements on big purchases of US arms by European states, and jobs, and loved the big shiny revolver that Erdoğan gifted all NATO leaders. Trump appears to have been one of the few leaders able to keep the latter.

Let’s not be unrealistic here: this NATO summit did not secure the future of the transatlantic alliance. But, critically for Europe, the Ankara summit did not bust the alliance, and it managed to keep the US in NATO for the time being. 

And that’s all Europe wanted. They wanted this summit to buy more time for Europe to rearm and to be able to develop its own autonomous defense capability, as autonomous as possible from the US. Because whatever warm words European leaders might say to Trump and US counterparts about the strength of NATO, and its rebirth as NATO 3.0, the Trump presidency has collapsed their faith in the US commitment to Article V. 

They no longer think that the US will come to their defense if attacked. 

Worse than that, I think most European leaders now fear that Europe no longer shares the same interests or values with a MAGA America. And they are not counting their chickens that MAGA is a fleet of fancy for American voters.

Why not interests?

Well, first, for Europe, the number one existential security threat is Russia. And on Russia, Trump seems to have been playing both sides.

And second, in launching the Iran war, without consultation with European allies, Trump was hurting the economies of its NATO allies which are big energy importers.

Why not values?

Well, the hard right, socially illiberal MAGA agenda seems to be stabbing in the heart of the liberal, inclusive, mostly multicultural DNA of the EU, and Europe more generally. Maybe that is changing with Reform in the UK, the AfD, and FN in France, but they are still minority movements.

 And I would argue MAGA billionaire bro crowd, through their social platforms, and support for political extremes in Europe, present both a clash of values and interests with the European mainstream, and a risk to national security, peace, and stability in Europe, almost on par with Russia. 

We forget here that Europe is a continent that has huge historical territorial and ethnic tensions – the basis of two brutal world wars –  and NATO and EU enlargement played a huge part in keeping these mostly in check for the post WW2 period. 

MAGA is playing with fire if it wants to use the current migrant issue to divide Europe back into a continent of nation-state sovereignty. The prior history there was disastrous, and it’s as if the MAGA crew has zero knowledge of that very same European history. Indeed, arguably, the legacy of that same old European mentality is now playing out in the war in Ukraine, with millions of casualties.

The other big win engineered, or helped along, by Turkish diplomacy at the Ankara summit was the near 360-degree turn by Trump on Ukraine. Thus, after fawning on Putin, and largely berating and bullying Zelensky in the period up to the Anchorage summit, at Ankara, Trump appeared sweet and light on Zelensky and Ukraine. 

So much so that Trump appears to have been taken over the line on agreeing for Ukraine to buy critical Patriot missiles, and later we heard that the Trump administration will work to assure the passage of a big Russia sanctions bill in Congress. All this will help heap the pressure on Putin, hopefully forcing him back to the negotiating table.

On Ukraine, Turkiye can perhaps only take part of the credit, as Ukraine itself through its development of drone capability, created for itself a whole new pack of cards to trade now with Trump. 

Drone technology and defense are the future, as revealed by both the wars in Ukraine and Iran, and Ukraine has the critical edge in that technology. Trump wants it. But Trump likes winners, and Zelensky is now considered to be the winner, and Putin the loser. This explains the shift more than anything from Trump. But Turkiye certainly helped build that narrative for Trump.

Europeans I think are hugely appreciative now of Türkiye’s efforts in Ankara – helping to keep Trump subdued and delivering on Ukraine. The Iran and Ukraine wars, plus the US pullback from Europe, have also elevated the status of Turkiye as a strong regional power, and mainstay of Europe’s defense. 

Actually, with its sheer weight of military power (men, tanks, ships, airplanes), battle experience, plus its military industrial complex and defense tech (drones), Turkiye offers Europe multiple defense solutions. And this was the other takeaway of this NATO summit, as another green light for Europe to deepen defense ties with Turkiye - also helped along now by hopes of CAATSA being lifted. 

Notably also for Erdoğan was Europe’s silence on the values issues –trends on democracy, rule of law, and human rights. Europe gave Erdogan a free pass there at this summit, much to the consternation of the opposition in Türkiye. 

The counter would be where are Europe’s values when it comes to developments in Gaza, the West Bank, or Lebanon, for that matter? Double standards are now the standard - the Global South is quick to criticize Israel for Gaza, but not Russia on Ukraine. And the West is the same, but the reverse, criticizing Russia on Ukraine, but pulling punches on Israel over Gaza.

Net net, though this summit should bring a wave of new defense-related deals for Türkiye with Europe and the US, and that will deliver jobs for Erdogan ahead of the looming elections.

Reprinted from the author’s @tashecon blog. See the original here.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.