Next Two Months Will be Turning Point in War, Says Senior Ukrainian Official

The next few months will mark a critical stage of the war, given that both sides - Ukraine and Russia - are preparing for a decisive battle, the Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, has said.

Speaking on the national TV marathon, Oleksiy Danilov said the Russian authorities were fed up with the failures in the war with Ukraine, which is why they’ve decided to remove the commander-in-chief of the so-called " special military operation," General Sergei Surovikin, from his post.

The position has gone to General Valery Gerasimov, who moves from Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces to Commander of the Joint Grouping of Forces, the Russian Defense Ministry announced in a statement on the evening of Wednesday, Jan. 12.

This, according to Danilov, indicates that in the coming months, Russia, no longer able to prolong the conflict due to a lack of resources, will go all-in, trying to achieve at least minor victories at the front.

"Certain personnel changes are taking place in Russia now. Surovikin, who is basically the representative of Prigozhin and Kadyrov, has been eliminated. Certain processes are taking place there, and this is just the beginning," Danilov explained.

According to him, the situation in Russia is now extremely shaky, and there is a high probability that dictator Vladimir Putin will stumble and give up.

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"There are 3.5 armies there today — Kadyrov's army, Prigozhin's army, separately the army of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which do not respect either Kadyrov or Prigozhin, and separately now the power structures that are trying to form another army. A war for power will begin in Russia. You see the state of Putin's health, and he is very ill. As soon as it weakens, the showdown will begin," Danilov said.

In addition, according to the NSDC official, the Kremlin, which has a tendency to mark symbolic dates, will try to achieve at least minor success which it can celebrate before Feb. 24, a year to the day on which it began its reinvasion of Ukraine.

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Alisa Orlova

Alisa Orlova is a Deputy News Editor and correspondent for Kyiv Post. For seven years, she has worked as a TV journalist, covering primarily topics on international policy. Back in September 2022, Alisa joined the Kyiv Post team.