ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 31, 2023

Key Takeaways

• Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new Russian Foreign Policy Concept on March 31 that likely aims to support the Kremlin’s attempts to promote a potential anti-Western coalition.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continues to use high-profile public statements to portray Belarus as a sovereign state despite its current de-facto occupation by Russian forces.
• Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov promptly rejected Lukashenko’s suggestion of a ceasefire and indicated that the Kremlin is not interested in serious negotiations.
• Russian Security Council deputy chairman Dmitry Medvedev leveraged comments about sending peacekeeping forces to Ukraine to continue information operations that portray the West as escalatory.
• Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
• Russian forces made gains within Bakhmut and Ukrainian forces regained positions in the Bakhmut area.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk frontline.
• Ukrainian strikes against Russian concentration areas in southern Ukraine are likely causing the Russian grouping in the area to change tactics to avoid the risk of strikes.
• Russian officials continue to state that Russian forces have no plans for a formal second wave of mobilization.
• Russian officials continue to send Ukrainian children to camps in Russia.

Authors: Riley Bailey, George Barros, Nicole Wolkov, Layne Philipson, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan

See full report here.