Having failed to predict and prepare for the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West must now get ready for the break-up of Russia, Olexiy Danilov, Ukraine’s Security and Defense Council Chief, has said, speaking in an interview with The Times newspaper.
He added that, recently, Russia has profoundly weakened and risks falling apart. According to Danilov, this became evident after Putin met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
"The West does not know Russia and fears Russia's fragmentation. But this process is already underway," Danilov stressed, adding that the collapse of Russia will be "spectacular" and will happen within the next three, five or seven years.
"This is a historical process, and history cannot be stopped," Ukraine's national security adviser said.
The likelihood of Russia's collapse after the defeat in the war against Ukraine, has been widely discussed by politicians and analysts since the full-scale invasion began.
According to a survey conducted by the Atlantic Council, many foreign policy experts agree with Danilov’s assessment, saying that Russia may not survive the coming decade and risks becoming a failed state as it pursues its costly war in Ukraine.
Of 167 experts interviewed by the Atlantic Council, 46% said that the collapse or disintegration of Russia could happen in the next ten years.
Separately, 40% of respondents pointed to Russia as a state that will disintegrate internally for a number of reasons, particularly because of "revolution, civil war or political disintegration."
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"Ukraine clearly emphasizes the possibility of internal problems for Russia and the likelihood that the war itself may have boomerang consequences not only for its leadership but also for the country as a whole," said Peter Engelke, deputy director of forecasting at the Atlantic Council.
At the same time, Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, believes that Russia will not collapse completely, but we will see the launch of a process of separation from Moscow by some "ethnic territories", which have a distinctive history.
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Comments ( 1)
Considering all economic sanctions and declining financial health of the Russian Federation, the true crisis has already ignited. It will take another year or two for its economic effects to be fully felt throughout the entire economic sectors and by the Russian society overall. Just all prior Russian social changes happened by Russia losing a war or the Soviet Union breaking up, this event will be more swifter and much more brutal, due to Russia's war crimes and antitonicities committed and due to globalization of the economic activities. Today Russia is the only aggressor responsible for the war and the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, that will cost over a $ Trillion USD to the Russian public. This will be the only chance for the people of Dagestan, Ichkeria, Ingushetia, Ossetia, Kabardino, etc other ethnic minorities that have been inhumanely treated, discriminated against for centuries and bullied by Russia – to break free from the monster and enjoy freedoms & independence. Russia should be split, broken-up and most probably this will be the best result to prevent any future imperialistic wars and ambitions by Russia's nationalist propagandists and Kremlin politicians.