Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for July 3: ‘It’s Hot Everywhere Now’

Snapshot

·      "It's hot everywhere now," according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar.

·      Increased Russian assaults took place around Severodonetsk line toward Luhansk region, as well as at Avdiivka, Lyman and Marinka in Donetsk region, as Russia stretches Ukrainian forces.

·      “Partial success” and “massive attacks” by Ukraine on Bakhmut’s southern flank was reported, as encirclement of Russian forces there is pushed.

Analysis

Quotes from Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s military commander-in-chief, to Washington Post:

·      “This is not a show. It's not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood.”

·      “Without being fully supplied, these plans are not feasible at all. But they are being carried out. Yes, maybe not as fast as the participants in the show, the observers, would like, but that is their problem.”

·      “It really annoys me.” – in relation to criticism of the offensive’s pace.

·      “Let’s just say the number of aircraft that are on duty near our western borders is twice as much as the number of Russian aircraft devastating our positions. Why can’t we take at least a third of it from there and move it here?”

Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 19, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

·      “Nobody is saying that tomorrow we should rearm and get 120 planes. Why? I do not need 120 planes. I’m not going to threaten the whole world. A very limited number would be enough. But they are needed. Because there is no other way. Because the enemy is using a different generation of aviation. It’s like we’d go on the offensive with bows and arrows now, and everyone would say, ‘Are you crazy?’ But with this question, ‘No, no.’”

General Developments, including Luhansk, Avdiivka, Marinka etc.

·      The Russian army attacked near Svatove in Luhansk region (50 kilometers north of Severodonetsk). “Heavy battles are ongoing there,” said Deputy Defense Minister HannaMalyar.

·      “The aggressor attacks Bilohorivka and Serebrianka. The situation is quite difficult," Malyar said. These villages are 10 kilometers west of Severodonetsk.)

·      Malyar also reported Russian forces were on the attack near Avdiivka and Marinka in the southern Donetsk region, as well as near Lyman, in the northern Donetsk region.

·      Russia undertook 57 air raids, according to Ukraine’s General Staff; Ukraine undertook 12.

·      Near the Antonivka Bridge near Kherson, heavy fighting continued as Ukraine continued attempts to establish a left-bank Dnipro River foothold, according to the spokeswoman for Ukraine’s southern forces.

·      While Germany and Poland failed to agree on opening a maintenance center in Poland to repair Leopard tanks supplied to Ukraine, according to Der Spiegel, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted as follows:

·      There were explosions in Russia’s Belgorod and Krasnodar regions.

·      Poland increased security on its border with Belarus following the transfer of Wagner units there.

Zone A. TO518 / Mokri Yaly River Axis - boundary of the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

Malyar on the situation in the south: "With heavy battles, but gradually we are advancing in the Berdiansk and Melitopol directions. Our troops are facing intense enemy resistance, remote mining, redeployment of reserves, but persistently and unceasingly we are creating conditions for the fastest possible movement forward.”

Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

·      Pro-Russian sources said that Ukraine continued small group assaults and skirmishes around Robotyne. Russian reserve forces were brought into the fight.

·      Pro-Russian sources said Russian counterattacks took place at Rivnopil with partial success.

·      Eleven explosions were recorded in Russian-occupied Berdyansk.

Zone C. Bakhmut

·      Ukrainian forces reported advances on Bakhmut’s flanks, including “partial success” on the southern flank.

·      Pro-Russian sources cited “massive attacks” by Ukrainian forces, involving mechanized infantry, along the southern flank stretching from Chasiv Yar through Klishchivka to Kurdyumivka.

·      “There is no intensive urban warfare in Bakhmut itself. Our sniper groups and some other units operate there... A massive offensive continues on the southern and northern flanks around the city. And we have advanced there,” said Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman for Ukraine’s eastern forces.

·      “The enemy attacked us for ten months. Now, we are pressing the enemy, but we are pressing with completely opposite tactics,” Cherevaty said. “We use the achievements of modern world science, we use unmanned aerial vehicles, reconnaissance, high-precision systems that we have to destroy the enemy, break through minefields, and also train personnel as much as possible before that. And we are moving forward step by step.”