Recent polling of US Republicans by the Ukraine Freedom Project found that 68 percent follow Russia’s war against Ukraine “closely” and only seven percent have a favorable view of Russin President Vladimir Putin or the Russian Federation as a whole.

So, why are Americans not doing more, right now, to help Ukraine?

There could be several reasons – not least the mounting costs of the war – but it seems a deep sense of future uncertainty is playing most on people’s minds. For example:

  • 81 percent of Americans fear we may be on the brink of World War III.
  • 49 percent are not sure who is winning in Ukraine (24 favor Ukraine and 27 percent favor Russia).
  • 76 percent believe “Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea are creating chaos in Ukraine, Israel, and other places” and see America as key to organizing a front against these nefarious actors.

Amidst these concerns, several other factors could conspire to influence future aid for Ukraine:

  • The 2024 electoral campaign season is already hotting up, with US President Joe Biden, all 435 members of Congress, and one-third of Senators (33 in total) up for election.
  • There’s a time factor at play, as this week brings Thanksgiving in the US, meaning Congress is out of session until Nov. 28 and only 14 working days remain for Congress until the new year begins.
  • The end of the year is typically when “difficult” legislation is passed as members of Congress ultimately fold to family’s pressure to “finish-up in D.C. and come home for the holidays.”

Uncertainty is turning to apprehension for Democrats, with nearly all polling indicating that former US President Donald Trump looks set to beat Biden in the 2024 elections.

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That said, we may never know how a Biden-Trump rematch could look. The popular hypothesis is that, should Trump find himself in a penitentiary before the November 2024 elections, he would endorse a different Republican with the de facto understanding that he would receive a presidential pardon when the Trump-anointed Republican wins.

Another reason to be skeptical about repeating 2020’s Biden and Trump head-to-head is that there are strong vibes suggesting Biden will not seek re-election. The common theory is that the President, after winning the primaries where he faces no serious opposition, will select a successor.

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With Ukraine desperate to shore up its air defense and counter Russia’s advantage in the sky’s, US government has been disappointingly reluctant to offer Kyiv air capabilities.

Whilst rumors at this point, the names of California Governor Gavin Newsom and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, have been mooted as potential replacements for Biden. Newsom has gone so far as to make international trips to China, which is typically a sign that a candidate-to-be is seeking to build their “international” image.

As US leaders are focused on their own political fates, unusually violent protests are taking place across America. Pro-Palestine/pro-Hamas supporters have wound up in confrontations with the authorities and Israel-supporters, including in downtown D.C. The demonstrably larger pro-Israel protest recently held in D.C., was peaceful.

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So, will Ukraine ever get enough aid?

The current feeling is that Ukraine will not just get enough, but a lot of aid. As to why this may be a “big” upcoming aid package is simple: Democrats want to help Ukraine – and fast. Meanwhile, Republican naysayers would prefer to hold a vote on Ukraine before the 2024 election cycle is in full force, in which case a vote for Ukraine will not become a distraction in the media and a source for attacks.

As always, Washington is chaotic, but at present it is madness.

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