Unmanned military drones, have evolved exponentially as tools for surveillance, reconnaissance, kamikaze strikes, logistical, and various other military applications since Russia’s February 2022 invasion. Even so, many experts think military drone development in Ukraine has barely scratched the surface and that the future holds even more exciting possibilities for this latest military innovation.
The ability of drones to inconspicuously provide real-time information have made them indispensable sources for strategic and tactical decision-making on the modern battlefield as well as strike weapons.
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Drones come in all shapes and sizes depending on the role they will play in the fight. They range from small “nano systems,” such as Norway’s Black Hornet, which can be used for immediate reconnaissance up to large, unmanned vehicles such as Iran’s Shahed drones capable of carrying out long-range strategic strikes or to act as “aircraft carriers” dispensing swarms of smaller attack drones.
Seaborne Drones
Ukraine has used unmanned surface vehicles (USVs -naval drones) to more than compensate for its lack of a conventional navy in its war with Russia. It has a range of USVs fitted out with a wide range of technical means including GPS and inertial navigation, passive and active sonar for target identification, hydrophones for sub-surface detection, as well as an attack capability – the SBU operated “Sea Baby” is highly maneuverable and can deliver nearly a ton of explosives over 1000 kilometers (625 miles).
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Deployed in the Black Sea region they have targeted Russian ships and port installations in concert with missiles reportedly destroying a third of Russia's Black Sea fleet and forcing it to withdraw from its main Crimea bases.
Land Drones
Unmanned ground vehicles (UGV) have already been operating on the front lines in Ukraine for over a year primarily providing logistic support but also increasingly to carry out offensive and defensive operations. UGVs have been used to remotely mine positions and choke points, use automatic and anti-tank equipment weapons against heavy vehicles and defensive positions. Ukraine’s Minister for Digital Transformation, Mykhailo Fedorov, reports that more than 140 UGV have been tested in the last year with at least 50 systems being certified, of which 14 are said to have met NATO standards.
To simplify the discussion, we will focus primarily on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) but many of the principles apply equally to UGV and USV.
In the early days the military bought existing off-the-shelf drones and then found an operational unit that fitted in with its capabilities. But now drones are increasingly being designed to meet a specific military requirement laid down by the user.
MILITARY DRONE CLASSIFICATION
Reconnaissance
Reconnaissance drones are intended to gather intelligence using sensors for high-resolution imaging, electromagnetic detection and signal collection. They can come in different sizes but are designed to operate discreetly, to provide vital data on which to base operational planning without tipping off the enemy or exposing friendly troops to risk.
Surveillance
These play a similar role to reconnaissance drones, but they are designed to provide real-time, continuous oversight of an area of interest. Using night vision, thermography and multi-spectral sensors they can detect enemy movement, identify and track targets, and assess the results of military action. Surveillance drones are generally designed to fly for long periods at altitudes that are governed by a specified operational requirement.
Combat
Combat drones can range from small first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drones or the “Baba Yaga” type of bombing drone that have become ubiquitous on Ukraine’s battlefields. Drone sizes can stretch up to aircraft-sized Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) such as the US RQ-4 Global Hawk, which combines surveillance capabilities to then deliver precision strikes using guided missiles or aerial bombs against personnel or physical targets.
Already drone designers are working on weapons designed specifically for delivery by FPV and bomber drones rather than adapting existing grenades or anti-vehicle warheads. Purpose built thermite systems are already being used as anti-material and anti-personnel weapons on so-called dragon drones, rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) launchers are carried by and fired from drones, and it is likely that purpose-built mini-guided weapons will quickly follow.
Logistical support
There is increasing use of drones for a wide range of support tasks that need to be conducted rapidly in combat areas without unnecessarily exposing personnel to risk. Tasks can include delivering ammunition, medical supplies, rations and other essential equipment directly onto the battlefield as well as casualty evacuation.
DRONE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE TRENDS
Autonomous Operations
Artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning and other autonomous capabilities will give military drones the ability to operate with minimal human intervention in the (not too distant) future. These unmanned vehicles will make their own decisions in real-time based on their programming combined with data analysis and sensor input.
Advances in optronics, obstacle detectors, and navigation systems will allow AI enhanced drones to operate in multidimensional, crowded environments, including urban areas and civilian populated areas where they will be able to discriminate between legitimate and innocent targets.
Machine Learning
Machine learning algorithms – which imprint multiple images of priority targets – will enable drones to adapt and learn to continually improve, adapt to changing battlefield environments, allowing them to make more informed decisions.
This technology greatly reduces the impact of EW systems because the drone that has been imprinted by machine learning can fly autonomously after locking onto a target; while reducing the dependency on the operator's skill - the algorithm replaces the reliance on the pilot's dexterity and responses.
In the future the development of software is going to be just as essential as the sensors, propulsion or weapons systems the drone carries to guarantee success on the battlefield.
Swarm Technology
The use of flocks of drones operating together as a coordinated unit is becoming a reality. Swarm technology will allow for increased redundancy, scalability, and mission success rates. These swarms can be used for surveillance, electronic warfare, and even launching synchronized attacks. These can be ground launched or carried to a target area on a larger “cargo-type” drone or conventional aircraft.
The Dutch Research Council (NWO) has awarded €2.7 million ($2.9 million) for project STEADFAST (Swarm Technology Enabling Advanced Drone-Facilitated Active Support Tactics) which will focus on improving situational awareness, rapid decision-making and real-time monitoring of AI equipped swarms carrying out intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) tasks.
Artist’s impression by Italy’s Nurjanatech company of its Stealth Cargo UAV releasing a drone swarm.
Stealth technology
Developers of military drones have been working on reducing their radar cross-section, making them more difficult to detect both visibly and electronically, increasing their survivability, and allowing them to be used on covert intelligence gathering tasks without alerting the enemy. Quieter motors that reduce the noise footprint of drones, will further enhance these stealth capabilities.
Tethered drones
The development of fiber-optic controlled drones will make them less susceptible to jamming, detection and other electronic warfare (EW) attacks. A standard quadcopter, either off-the-shelf or bespoke is fitted with a cassette that unrolls a fiber-optic cable, up to 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) long, capable of supporting a high-bandwidth data link that provides a closed two-way communication channel so there are no radio emissions for the enemy to exploit.
Extended range development
Innovations in propulsion, materials, and energy efficiency are extending the range and endurance of military drones. Allowing drones to loiter over target areas for longer periods to allow continuous monitoring and real-time intelligence. Emerging technologies will allow mid-air refueling and rapid battery recharging to further extend the range and endurance of military drones. Next generation batteries offer longer run time, reduced noise signatures, and lower operational costs. Jet engines and hydrogen fuel cells are all under consideration as means of propulsion.
The use of drones equipped with communication relays positioned at intermediate points can extend the reach of drone control systems and thereby increase the operational range of drones beyond the norm.
COUNTER-DRONE TECHNOLOGY
As military drone technology develops so does the need to counter them by detecting, tracking, and neutralizing your enemy’s drones.
Drone Monitoring Equipment (DME) can be passive, looking or listening or active – sending out a signal to the drone and then analyzing what comes back. This will allow you to detect the presence of a drone, classify it by function or even the model and digital fingerprint of the individual drone, locate and possibly track it in real time. The aim being to deploy your own countermeasures or at least be able to avoid the drone.
The DME must not only detect that something is there but be able to classify it, separating drones and other threats from other objects such birds and planes and in the future will be able to identify the specific model of drone and therefore the level of threat – is it an attack, surveillance of reconnaissance drone? It may also be possible by collecting and analyzing the digital fingerprint of particular drones to identify the user which could be later used for prosecution of drones used to conduct war crimes.
There are four main types of DME: radio frequency (RF) analyzers that detect the radio communication between a drone and its controller; acoustic sensors that can detect the noise of the drone and its direction of flight; infra-red or thermal imaging optical sensors which can detect the drone at night; radar which uses radio energy to detect the drone but, because it is an active source may allow the drone or its operator to identify the transmitter’s location.
Drone Countermeasure Equipment (DCE)
Countermeasures can aim for the physical destruction of the drone, to neutralize it or to take control of it:
Physical destruction normally involves the firing of some sort of projectile at drones although some militaries are working on the use of high energy beams such as high power electro-magnetic (HPEM) strong enough to disrupt or destroy its circuitry or high energy lasers that can destroy the structure and/or the electronics of the drone.
Radio frequency jammers can be either static, mobile, or handheld are already being widely used by both Ukraine and Russia on the battlefield. These transmit large amounts of RF energy at the drone to disrupt or mask the control signal, causing the drone to land or fall in its current position, return to a pre-programmed location or fly off in an uncontrolled direction.
A GPS spoofer replaces the communication signal the drone uses to navigate, fooling it into thinking it’s somewhere else. Done in real time it is possible to gain control of the drone and direct it to a “safe zone.” There are suggestions that Ukraine is already fielding this technology.
Cyber Takeover Systems (CTS) is a technology in its infancy that can passively detect radio frequency transmissions emitted by a drone, identify the drone's serial number and, using AI send a signal to hack the drone, assume control, and direct it to a safe location.
Drone-catching nets: Systems that employ nets to physically intercept drones in mid-flight, tangling the drone’s blades, making it unable to fly preventing them from carrying out their missions either by causing them to crash or ensnare them and capture them. Nets can be ground launched using rockets or carried on an interceptor drone.
ETHICAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS
As military drone technology advances and UAVs become ever more present and their use critical to battlefield success, just like every weapons system their use in wartime must be guided by ethical and legal considerations, which will become increasingly important as drones acquire the ability to make fully autonomous decisions about the use of lethal force.
At the 27th session of the UN Human Rights Council in 2014, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) agreed that while the weapons were new, “there are also no inherent features of drones that would prevent their operators from observing the relevant rules of this body of law.”
Under human rights laws states must distinguish between combatants and civilians and between civilian objects and military objectives. The use of drones must follow this fundamental tenet.
The military will have to develop mechanisms to control and account for the actions and decisions AI controlled drones make on the battlefield.
It may also be necessary to revisit and revise existing international laws and treaties including the Geneva Conventions and other agreements on armed conflict to regularize the use of drones in war.
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