Russia Shifts From Shaheds to Missiles and Bombs – A Tactical Change or a Pause Before the Storm?

For the first time in nearly six months, Russia did not launch Shahed strike unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over Ukraine, instead attacking with cruise missiles and guided aerial bombs.

“There were no strike UAVs. We are monitoring further – until it means nothing,” wrote Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, on Telegram.

According to the Ukrainian Air Force, two Kh-59/69 guided missiles were intercepted.

“Around 9 p.m. on March 31, the enemy launched two Kh-59/69 guided missiles from tactical aircraft in the Zaporizhzhia direction,” the Air Force reported via Telegram.

The last recorded instance of Russia refraining from drone attacks was on the morning of Dec. 10, 2024. Before that, it was on Oct. 14, 2024. In April 2024, Russian forces also went several days without launching Shaheds.

Despite the pause in drone strikes, Russia continued heavy bombardment overnight, deploying glide bombs along the Sumy region’s border and in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions.

Meanwhile, Dnipropetrovsk regional military head Serhiy Lysak reported that Russian forces attacked Nikopol with artillery and drones, damaging infrastructure, an administrative building, and three private homes. No casualties were reported.

As evidenced by the missile attacks, this shift in tactics does not signal Russia’s intent to observe a ceasefire. Instead, it may suggest that Moscow is stockpiling resources to escalate future attacks.

Other Topics of Interest

Rutte Calls Ramstein Meeting a ‘Window of Opportunity’ for Ukraine

NATO’s chief Mark Rutte hailed a “window of opportunity” for Ukraine at a Ramstein-format meeting in Brussels on Thursday, with roughly a third of NATO members plus Australia now paying into a joint fund for US-made equipment for Kyiv.

Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha stated during a joint press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart, Kēstutis Budris, that Russia continues to violate the so-called “energy truce.”

According to him, on the morning of April 1, Russian shelling damaged an energy facility in Kherson, leaving 45,000 households without electricity.

“After Riyadh, one of the agreements with the US was not to strike energy infrastructure. At the same time, Russia continues to violate this agreement,” Sybiha said.

He added that following the negotiations, energy facilities in the Kharkiv and Poltava regions were also targeted.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported 216 combat clashes across the front lines in the past 24 hours, indicating that fighting remains intense.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russia is unlikely to agree to an unconditional ceasefire within the next three weeks. The Kremlin has reportedly tied any temporary truce – such as one in the Black Sea – to Western concessions on sanctions.

Just a day earlier, on the morning of March 31, Russian forces launched a massive aerial assault, deploying 131 Shahed drones and decoy UAVs from multiple directions.

By 9 a.m. on March 31, Ukrainian forces had confirmed the downing of 57 Shahed drones in the north, east, and center of the country. Another 45 Russian decoy drones crashed without causing harm.

The attack impacted multiple regions, including Sumy, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Zhytomyr.