On May 18, the Polish electorate will vote in the first round of the presidential elections. Top candidates are Rafał Trzaskowski of the center-right Civic Platform and Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate and historian supported by the nationalist-conservative Law & Order Party (PiS).
The Polish elections are significant for the Polish public, the millions of Ukrainians in Poland, and the broader European and global political landscape.
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Poland, a neighbor and key ally of Ukraine, has provided over €5.3 billion ($5.9 billion) in military, humanitarian, and financial support to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression since 2022. In addition to this support, Poland provides shelter to nearly one million Ukrainian refugees.
According to the latest poll, Trzaskowski leads the Polish presidential race with 34.3% of the vote, followed closely by Nawrocki at 26.1%. Right-wing libertarian Sławomir Mentzen trails in third with 12%, making his victory unlikely. A second-round runoff may be required, as no candidate is expected to secure over 50% of the votes in the initial round.
Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw since 2018, is a member of the pro-European Civic Platform, the party of the current Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. In 2020, Rafał Trzaskowski ran for president but narrowly lost to PiS candidate Andrzej Duda. Trzaskowski’s campaign emphasizes strategic investments in the economy, community development, and economic innovation, while promoting deregulation and bolstering national defense.
Poland Doesn’t Want to Write Ukraine’s History. It Wants Some Revisions
Nawrocki, who PiS supports, is the main opponent for Trazskowski. Nawrocki’s campaign focuses on reducing taxes, implementing stricter immigration policies, strengthening the military, and repealing the European Union’s Green Deal.
Stance on Ukraine
Trzaskowski is open to Ukrainian EU membership, but expressed concern over historical and economic hurdles that first need to be tackled. Trzaskowski generally supports NATO membership for Ukraine and emphasizes that Russia should not win the war.
All Ukrainians living in Poland are eligible to receive child support via the Family 800 plus program.
Trzaskowski has proposed a broadly supported policy wherein only Ukrainians who pay taxes are eligible to receive benefits from the Family 800 plus program.
In January 2025, during an appearance on the TV program, Guest of Events, Nawrocki declared that he did not see Ukraine in Poland or NATO, until Ukraine and Poland resolve the matter of the Volhynia massacre, which occurred during World War II. Since January, progress has been made by Tusk and Zelensky towards resolving this delicate matter.
Nawrocki promised to continue to support Ukraine in its war efforts against Russia, but thinks that Zelensky is not grateful enough for the help Ukraine received. Nawrocki, labeled an enemy by Russia and placed on its wanted list, believes Trump will enhance Central Europe’s security. Generally, Nawrocki has expressed a greater affinity for Trump than for European partners.
Expectations
According to the Polish Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski, Russia is attempting to interfere in the Polish electoral process. If the election goes as expected, Trzaskowski will win the first round and will face a runoff against Nawrocki. Trzaskowski currently holds the lead in electoral projections for the anticipated runoff elections.
The first round of the Polish Presidential elections is on May 18, the runoff election is scheduled for June 1.
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