As the honorary Chairman of the International Democracy Union (IDU), I spoke at the 2025 IDU Forum in Brussels on May 15 during which I reported on my extensive research into how US President Donald Trump’s second term is viewed by those with a wide range of political views.
A full version of my presentation and detailed breakdown of my polling data can be found here.
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Since his inauguration in January, he has wasted no time implementing what supporters and opponents agree is a radical agenda, both at home and internationally. My research shows how this second term looks to different parts of his supporters, and the implications for America’s relationships with her allies, especially here in Europe.
I have also thought about how parties around the world need to respond to Trump’s appeal – regarding such as concerns about migration, the costs net zero and the loss of cultural self-confidence – and the risk of some of these things being tainted by the way the 47th president goes about his business.
For the US perspective I carried out a 10,000-sample poll along with 12 focus groups in Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, three of last November’s decisive states. Further afield, I conducted surveys in five countries across Europe – Britain, France, Germany, Poland and Estonia – to explore how both sides of the western alliance view the transatlantic relationship and the implications of the new world order.
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The big picture
I found that just over half of Americans now say the country is currently heading in the wrong direction, whereas 7 in 10 “Trump supporters” say things are on the right track.
Overall Americans disapprove of Trump’s performance by an 8-point margin with just over half of his 2024 voters strongly approving, just over a third approving somewhat and just over 1 in 10 of them said they disapproved of his performance to date.
Three quarters of those who voted for Trump categorized his first 100 days as “what they had expected, and it’s why they voted for him,” while just under 1 in 5 said they disliked a lot of what he was doing as president.
Views on specific issues
We asked how strongly people approved or disapproved of some of his early actions. Four things gained majority support across the board: pushing for a negotiated end to the Ukraine war, requiring colleges receiving federal funding to protect free speech on campus, recognizing there are only two sexes which cannot be changed, and asking Europe to become more self-sufficient militarily.
Expanding oil drilling and declaring an emergency at the southern border had more backers than opponents, opinion was divided on DOGE, and there was more skepticism about scrapping DEI initiatives and imposing tariffs.
Only around 3 in 10 approved of the push to end birthright citizenship, and fewer still supported withdrawing from the Paris Agreement on climate change, leaving the World Health Organization, pardoning the January 6th felons and trying to take control of Greenland.
Tariffs
On the issue of tariffs, we found considerable skepticism. Fewer than 1 in 10 voters– including only around 1 in 7 Trump voters – thought the tariffs had no downsides for the US. Most felt the downsides would outweigh the upsides if there were any at all.
Focus groups gave various explanations of what Trump’s tariffs were trying to achieve, whether or not they thought they would be effective: a more level playing field for international trade; bringing jobs back to the US; cutting the trade deficit; making America more self-sufficient; raising revenue to cut taxes or the deficit; and tackling drug trafficking from China, Canada and Mexico.
Some were not sure what the tariffs were for or how they were supposed to work, but felt there were things about trade and the economy that needed correcting and trusted that Trump knew what he was doing. They took it as read that the tariffs were “reciprocal” and matched what other countries charged on US imports.
Trump’s 90-day pause was either considered as part of Trump’s “negotiating genius” or proof that he was making things up as he went along – depending on pre-existing views of the president.
Other worries, expressed by both Trump voters and opponents, were the prospect of price rises, job losses, shortages, and damage to America’s international relationships. Some felt bringing back manufacturing jobs to the US, the results would take years to be felt, while they needed help now.
Another concern, mentioned in a couple of groups, was that Trump was trying to raise revenue in order to cut taxes for the highest earners – this could be politically toxic if ordinary voters end up facing higher prices or empty shelves.
Within the “Trump camp” there were differences between those who voted for him positively against those who saw him as the “lesser of two evils.”
This latter group may have backed Trump because he promised a stronger economy and higher living standards, but often with strong reservations. They amount to around 14 per cent of Trump’s 2024 support and swung both the Electoral College and popular vote.
While 77 per cent of Trump enthusiasts say America is heading in the right direction these more reluctant voters are divided. Also, when asked how optimistic they are for the US economy, the enthusiasts overwhelmingly approve, reluctant voters are much more muted and are more likely than not to say they dislike a lot of what they’ve seen.
Just over 6 in 10 of the reluctant group back the DOGE project, compared to more than three quarters of enthusiasts. Fewer than half approve of tariffs or the push to end birthright citizenship.
The biggest gulf in opinion is on pardoning the January 6th rioters, which reluctant Trump voters oppose by a clear margin.
More reluctant Trump voters felt there had been a lot of chaos but little to show for it, especially on the economy and the cost of living. They have less faith in Trump personally, less patience and – like the president himself – a transactional approach to politics. They may impact the midterm elections in 18 months’ time – they struck a deal with Trump and expect him to deliver.
The outside view
Reluctant Trump voters are worried about some of what they’re seeing and it goes double for many outside the US who worry about his attitude to its traditional allies.
We found European audiences more skeptical about the transatlantic alliance than Americans themselves who are more likely to agree than disagree that US and Europe are ideas and values are similar; in all five European countries polled, the reverse was true.
On trade and the economy, Americans are more likely to see Europe as partners, while most Europeans see the US as a competitor. Similarly Americans thought the US and Europe had essentially the same interests on defense and international security, Europeans were more likely to disagree.
Most Americans think the US would still intervene to protect Europe in a crisis. Europeans are not convinced – only one third of Poles and 1 in 5 Brits think it’s true. And while Americans are more likely than not to think the US and European countries are becoming more different, Europeans themselves think so in much greater proportions.
Americans are 3 or 4 times more likely than those in European surveys to say that the US and Europe have basically the same values and interests.
Americans saw all five of the European countries we surveyed as firm allies; Poland and Estonia returned agreed, but voters in Britain, France and Germany were nearly as likely to see the as an adversary or rival rather than a friend or ally.
We found Americans were twice as likely as Brits, and four times as likely as the French and Germans, to see China as a serious threat to their security. Those in France and Germany were almost as likely to say they saw the US as much a threat as China.
Worryingly European respondents did not see the US as a force for good in the world with the prevailing view being that it was once but is less so now.
A nuanced view
Europeans feel the trajectory towards a more distant relationship is not irreversible –because of Trump’s transactional nature, because they separate him from mainstream America, and because of term limits.
Large majorities in all five European countries though tariffs were simply a negotiating ploy and would be scrapped or fall significantly as Trump does deals – the agreement struck with the UK struck would seem to encourage this view.
Most Europeans surveyed thought Trump might have won the election, but he and his administration did not represent the true US position on defense, security and foreign affairs – although I think this is rather wishful thinking.
Very few believe America’s current approach to trade, defense and foreign affairs will continue for a long time after the end of Trump’s term – upwards of two thirds expect things to change once he leaves office.
Even so, very few think things will continue as they have in the recent past. Most in Britain and Germany, and just under half in France and Estonia feel Europe can no longer rely on the US for protection and should spend more and work more closely together on defense. Even in Poland, where many believe the US would help in a crisis, there was agreement that Europe would have to become more militarily self-sufficient.
Wishful thinking that things will change when Trump goes
One reason is that Americans are significantly more likely to think their interests are best served by using their resources at home rather than by supporting others – they feel they have carried too much of the burden for too long.
This view is by no means confined to Trump enthusiasts. There is majority support for pursuing a negotiated end to the Ukraine war, general agreement that US resources are needed at home, and widespread agreement across the board that Europe should take more responsibility for its own defense – rather than spending on lavish social welfare while Americans pay for their defense.
The upshot is that no Republican candidate is going to run wanting to turn back the clock and repudiating Trump’s “America First” policy and the same is true of any Democratic talk about “global America” either.
As well as policy challenges in defense and international trade, Trump’s approach sets a political test for all of us. Patriotism and national interest, once the preserve of the center-right is no longer the case. The Trumpian view of American nationalism has prompted a response in which the center-left can see the possibilities in what we might call “progressive patriotism”.
As well as the European attitudes I’ve described, we saw it in action recently in Canada and Australia with elements emerging on the left in the UK – who define themselves as a bulwark against the “Trumpian menace.”
The challenge for us will be to define our robust view of the enlightened national interest in a way that keeps us distinct from the less popular parts of the Trump approach. Voters will no longer be choosing between globalism and national interest, but which kind of nationalism – or which kind of patriotism – they prefer.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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