ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 22, 2025

Key Takeaways from the ISW:

• Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups reportedly recently advanced into southern Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to pursue their operational objective of enveloping the town.
• Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet on July 23 in Istanbul for the third round of bilateral negotiations, but Kremlin officials are already dismissing and undermining the upcoming talks.
• Russia’s reported long-term rearmament plans further indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO.
• Russian authorities recently detained Bryansk Oblast Vice Governor Nikolai Simonenko and former Belgorod Oblast Vice Governor Rustem Zainullin, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for larger Russian border security failures following Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion.
• Russian authorities targeted a Telegram channel that revealed Russia’s role in the late December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane as part of a wider campaign to censor Telegram channels that are critical of the Kremlin.
• Russian forces recently executed a civilian in the Lyman direction.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.

Authors: Jennie Olmsted, Angelica Evans, Daria Novikov, Olivia Gibson, and Kateryna Stepanenko.

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