Russia’s Oil and Gas Revenues Projected to Plunge by 37% in July – Reuters

Reuters forecasts Russian state oil and gas revenues to fall by around 37% in July this year compared to July last year, the news agency reported. 

In real money, Russia’s oil and gas revenues may fall to 680 billion roubles ($8.66 billion) because of cheaper oil prices and stronger local currency, Reuters estimated. 

However, the losses are predicted to be offset by cyclical payments of oil profit-based tax, which is projected to increase by 37% from June to July. 

Oil and gas revenues compile a quarter of Russia’s total federal budget proceeds, filling the National Welfare Fund that finances its war in Ukraine. 

The average Russian oil price in roubles stayed below the federal budget’s target for 2025, signalling a decrease in revenues, Reuters reported.

At the same time, Russia’s budget deficit is accelerating, comprising 3.69 trillion roubles ($46.89 billion), or 1.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), in the first half of the year already, Reuters reported. This is higher than the 0.5% of GDP Russia planned in autumn 2024, according to Russian Interfax. 

Reuters calculated that during January-July this year, Russia’s oil and gas revenue could decline by 20% year-on-year to 5.4 trillion roubles ($68.79 billion). 

While Russian oil and gas revenues reached 11.13 trillion roubles ($141.74 billion) in 2024, the Russian finance ministry forecasted Russia will earn 10.94 trillion roubles ($139.39 billion) from oil and gas sales this year. But it revised that expectation down to 8.32 trillion roubles ($106.05 billion), Reuters wrote.

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