OPINION: Ukraine Frozen Out in Alaska

News of the venue for the Putin-Trump summit, Alaska, is the clearest indication yet that the two leaders want to showcase a great power summit - akin to Yalta - where the two leaders divide up the world in their own interests. And therein Ukraine will be on the menu for lunch, breakfast and/or dinner.

Remarkably at a summit where Ukraine is center stage, it is not even invited. Greenland should be very worried, it will be next.

Many will ask why the sudden 180 again from Trump from threatening aggressive sanctions on Russia (100%) if it failed to abide by the Aug. 8 ceasefire deadline to now not rolling out any sanctions of note and now offering Putin the great power summit he has so craved for a decade or more?

Usefully for Trump it helps move the news cycle away from the Epstein affair. Others would just argue that this was the game plan all along and all this is now being stage-managed by the Kremlin and the WH.

What is clear here is that Trump has caved in to Putin’s maximalist demands on Ukraine. Leaked peace terms imply that Ukraine will have to accept the de facto loss of its territory already occupied by Russia - the total loss of Donbas and Crimea. And to ensure Putin gets the whole of Donbas Ukraine will have to withdraw from territory it has fought tooth and nail over the last 3.5 years and shed much blood and treasure to defend.

Russia gets the full lifting of sanctions so will be able to quickly regenerate its military machine for future attacks on Ukraine and Europe. Presumably it gets the full $330bn in immobilized CBR reserves back, raising the question who pays the $1 trillion tab for Ukraine reconstruction. Europe presumably or no one - so Ukraine will remain weak, underdeveloped and unable to defend itself against future Russian attack. Thats exactly what Putin wants.

Other Topics of Interest

The Illusion of a Peace Deal for Ukraine

Anyone who believes Russia is serious about negotiating a peace deal with Ukraine need only look at what Moscow says to be disabused. For those who consider Zelensky to be the one who is obstreperously rejecting reasonable compromises, let them lay out a point-by-point plan of what they and Russia see as the path towards ending this war. I’ll wager nobody can.

There is no peace for Ukraine while Putin remains in power and has the resources and opportunity to intervene in Ukraine. He has made it clear he wants control over the whole of Ukraine and will never settle for anything less unless he is stopped.

Trump has shown he has zero understanding of Putin or Ukraine. Trump just wants a quick deal in Ukraine which he can sell as a win - already such a quick but, ill thought out, deal in Gaza worked really well. Not.

I don’t see credible security guarantees for Ukraine in the peace terms leaked - no credible assurance on future NATO membership, no direct bilateral security guarantees albeit a vague assurance from the US that it will supply (likely for a fee) military equipment to Ukraine.

But how can any future government in Ukraine believe anything that this US administration promises? Therein Ukraine still remembers the sellout which was the Budapest memorandum - it surrendered its huge nuclear arsenal for great power security guarantees which literally were not worth the paper they were written on.

No Ukrainian leader could agree to any territorial give up - even de facto - without cast iron security guarantees for territory remaining under the control of Kyiv. Security would be key to successful economic development - and a strong EU accession anchor. Any such give-up would risk revolution and or a coup at home.

Remember here that Ukraine has a history of two such revolutions - Orange and Euromaidan. Zelensky knows all this.

Ukrainians, I think, had already concluded from the ambush of Zelensky in the White House earlier this year that Trump would ultimately sell them out to Putin. They have been playing for time, preparing for that time when they would have to walk away from negotiations and fight on in this war without the support of the US. They have been building their own military industrial complex, working on boosting support from Europe and preparing for the time when the US no longer has their back - actually stabs them in the back. Alaska will be the defining break.

Reprinted from the author’s blog @tashecon blog.  See the original here.

The views expressed are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.