Ukraine’s Economy Grew by 0.8% in Q2 2025 – State Statistics Service

Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year, the State Statistics Service reported.

The service published the flash estimate of GDP for Q2, which will likely be subject to further clarification in the coming months. 

The published figures turned out to be more pessimistic than previous estimates, made by both the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) – Ukraine’s central bank – as well as Ukraine’s leading economic think tank, the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting (IER). 

NBU estimates Ukraine’s real GDP will grow by 1.1% in the second quarter, according to its July 2025 Inflation report. The figures were published after the bank’s downward revision of Ukraine’s real GDP by a whole percent in July 2024 because of weather, war, and higher defense spending.

Ukraine’s IER was also more optimistic, estimating Ukraine’s real GDP would grow by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2025. 

Ukraine’s real GDP rose by 0.9% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period the previous year, according to State Statistics Service’s data.  

The growth of 0.9% compared to the first quarter of last year was almost the same to the NBU’s 0.9% and EIR’s 0.8% estimate.

Ukraine’s economy is slowing down due to reductions in the potential for growth among civilian sectors, the consequences of Russia destroying production facilities, infrastructure, and housing with its deadly air attacks and occupying Ukrainian territories. 

Other Topics of Interest

The Most and Least Likely American Voter to Support Ukraine

US public support for Ukraine remains resilient despite reduced military aid, with 54% of Americans considering the war personally important. Confidence in Trump’s handling of the conflict has dropped sharply to 32%, while 50% trust Zelensky. A notable age divide exists – older Americans are consistently more concerned than younger ones. Russia’s influence strategy is also evolving, increasingly leveraging internet personalities like Candace Owens and Andrew Tate to reach younger audiences.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine which sparked the migration of 5 million Ukrainians abroad and 4.6-million internally displaced persons (IDP), also caused tensions within the labor market that have constrained growth.

Additionally, Ukraine’s agriculture was negatively affected by a $700 million loss in exports due to the EU’s move to end its tariff-free trade regime with Ukraine to protect European farmers.

A more concerning factor is the April frosts, as they delayed the sowing season and hampered future harvests, causing the NBU to slash this year’s GDP growth forecast in its July 2025 inflation report to 2.1% and for 2026 to be at 2.3%. 

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) also revised Ukraine’s economic growth forecast for 2025 downward from 3.3% to 2.5%, while IER forecasts Ukraine’s GDP in 2025 will be at 2%, increasing to 2.8%.