Russia has likely modified its ballistic missiles so they can evade US-made Patriot air defense systems in Ukraine.
Months of destructive airstrikes suggest Moscow has succeeded in upgrading its missiles to bypass Ukrainian defenses, current and former Ukrainian and Western officials told the Financial Times.
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One former Ukrainian official said the changes were “a game changer for Russia,” especially as Kyiv faces slower deliveries of air defense interceptors from the US ahead of winter.
The report said Moscow has upgraded its Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles and Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched missiles.
Both types now fly a normal path before suddenly veering off or diving steeply, maneuvers that confuse and evade Patriot interceptors.
Ukraine’s interception rate improved over the summer, reaching 37% in August, but dropped to only 6% in September, even though Russia launched fewer missiles, the report says.
The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal, known by NATO as “Killjoy,” is a nuclear-capable aero ballistic missile believed to be a modified version of the Iskander-M.
First revealed by Russian leader Vladimir Putin in 2018, it is launched from MiG-31K fighter jets and other aircraft, has a range of more than 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles), and can reach speeds up to Mach 10 during its final approach, making interception difficult.
The Iskander system itself has two main versions. The Iskander-M is a ballistic missile, flying high on a curved path before diving down at high speed.
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The Iskander-K, also called the 9M727 or R-500, is a cruise missile that flies lower and flatter, more like an airplane, making it harder to detect. Both use the same truck-based launchers but behave differently in the air.
The FT also reported that Russia struck at least four drone production sites in Kyiv and surrounding areas this summer.
On Aug. 28, missiles targeted a plant making Turkish Bayraktar drones, as well as offices of a company designing drone components.
The same barrage damaged the EU delegation and British Council offices nearby after slipping past Ukrainian defenses.
A Western official told the newspaper the first sign of missile upgrades was the sharp drop in interception rates. The finding is backed by a US Defense Intelligence Agency report covering April to June, which said Ukraine has struggled to consistently use Patriot systems because of Russia’s new missile maneuvers.
Patriot interceptors remain the only system in Ukraine’s arsenal capable of downing Russian ballistic missiles. Kyiv can shoot down cruise missiles with less advanced defenses, but Russia’s modifications have made even those harder to stop.
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