Skilled Worker Shortage Persists Despite Labor Supply Growth, NBU Says

Ukraine’s labor supply continued to grow faster than demand in March, even as businesses struggled to fill skilled positions, according to the Ukrainian National Bank’s (NBU) April 2026 Macroeconomic and Monetary Review.

War-driven displacement, migration, and mobilization have left Ukraine with a persistent labor mismatch, keeping unemployment elevated despite rising demand for workers.

The number of job seekers in March increased, rising by 36% year-over-year (y-o-y), while vacancies grew by just 7%, Ukraine’s central bank reported, citing estimates for the labor force participation rate [the NBU calls it the increase in “the number of resumes”] from the employment platform Work.ua. The imbalance pushed the average number of candidates per vacancy to 2, slightly down from 2.1 in February, but well above 1.6 a year earlier.

Construction led hiring, public sector led the wage increase thanks to defense

Demand for workers remained uneven across sectors in March, with construction emerging as the primary driver of hiring. The central bank noted that construction was the only sector expected to expand its rosters, supported by seasonal improvement in the weather and increased activity in road and infrastructure reconstruction projects.

Average monthly wages reached Hr. 28,300 ($650) in February, according to the State Statistics Service data cited by NBU, marking a nominal increase of 22.4% year-over-year and real growth of 13.8%.

The public sector saw wages rise, with salaries up 31.1% year-over-year in education and 16.7% in public administration and defense. In manufacturing, the fastest increases were recorded in industries linked to the defense sector. Wages in vehicle manufacturing, related to the military-industrial sector, surged by 39.3% y-o-y. The total wage bill in the sector expanded 2.6 times over the past two years, driven by both higher pay and rising employment.

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War-driven displacement deepens Ukrainian labor market mismatch

The imbalance on the labor market reflects deeper structural disruptions caused by Russia’s full-scale invasion. Unemployment surged to around 20% in 2022 amid a surplus of labor unable to find work, while subsequent recovery has been constrained by outward migration and military mobilization.

Even as demand rebounded in sectors reshaped by the war, the workforce has struggled to match new skill requirements. The National Bank of Ukraine still estimated unemployment at 13% in 2024, highlighting a persistent mismatch where vacancies remain unfilled despite a sizable labor pool.

The trend decreased, and more Ukrainians found jobs, especially among students, women,and the elderly, but is still not eliminated as the war continues.