The UK warned Moscow it would defend NATO territory after reports that US intelligence briefed Poland on a possible Russian provocation designed to test alliance’s resolve.
The warning came after The Telegraph and Polish outlet Onet reported that Washington had briefed Warsaw several times about a potential Russian operation on Polish soil. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki told Onet that Moscow has not yet made a final decision, but that possible scenarios could unfold within the coming months.
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Responding to the reports, a spokesperson for the British prime minister said the UK “stands ready to defend every inch of NATO territory.”
“When Russian drones violated Polish skies, British Typhoon jets defended,” the spokesperson said, adding that Britain’s commitment to the security of its allies was “unwavering.”
The statement referred to the UK’s participation in NATO’s Operation Eastern Sentry, launched after Russian drones violated Polish airspace in September 2025. RAF Typhoon fighter jets were deployed to help protect the alliance’s eastern flank following the breach.
Russia’s possible test of NATO
According to the reports, US intelligence has warned Polish officials that Russia could seek to stage an ambiguous “hybrid” operation against Poland or another NATO eastern-flank state.
The goal, according to the reported assessments, would be to create political pressure inside the alliance, expose divisions over NATO’s collective defense commitments and force Western governments to reconsider military support for Ukraine.
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Possible scenarios described by Polish security sources include drone or missile strikes against critical infrastructure, simulated air attacks intended to trigger Polish air defense systems, or a limited ground incursion involving Russian or Belarusian personnel.
One scenario reportedly examined by Polish intelligence involves a border incident that Moscow could attempt to portray as an accident, such as a GPS navigation failure or a rescue operation linked to a damaged helicopter.
Such an operation would likely be designed to remain below the threshold of full-scale war while still forcing NATO capitals to decide how strongly to respond.
Poland warns of sabotage risk
The latest reports follow repeated Polish warnings that Russia is trying to exploit tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv through sabotage, disinformation and provocations.
Tomasz Siemoniak, Poland’s minister in charge of special services, said this week that Russian information warfare had intensified and that Polish authorities were preparing for possible sabotage operations aimed at inflaming tensions between Poles and Ukrainians.
He said Polish services had observed interest from people linked to Russian intelligence in military facilities, critical infrastructure and sites involved in support for Ukraine.
More broadly, Siemoniak warned that Western intelligence agencies are concerned about the risk of Russian hybrid or even kinetic attacks against Poland and the Baltic states.
“Russia has an arsenal of such actions and they are preparing them,” he said.
The Guardian also reported last week that intelligence sources in two NATO eastern-flank countries had warned of possible Russian provocations against the Baltic states or Poland. Latvian intelligence said it had seen indications that Russia was preparing military provocations, though not a full-scale attack.
NATO’s eastern flank on alert
The warnings come as NATO remains on heightened alert after Russian drones entered Polish airspace in September 2025 during a broader Russian attack on Ukraine.
That incident prompted NATO to launch Operation Eastern Sentry, reinforcing the alliance’s air defenses along its eastern flank with assets from several member states, including the UK.
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