Introduction
Last weekend’s update got a great deal of comment, particularly when I tried to summarize the Republican Party’s and Speaker Johnson’s position on Ukraine. I thought it would be worthwhile, considering the great interest people have shown, to allow one of the most senior Republicans with whom I have been exchanging messages, the chance to outline some thinking on the issues. In particular this would be the state of the party, the influence of Trump and the policy towards Ukraine. This was done by email—and the answers are entirely this person’s. There is no alteration beyond one corrected typo. I don’t claim to agree or disagree with any of it—and I do think it is a very valuable way of looking into Republican Party dynamics today (and why, btw, I think it is so important to defeat Trump in the presidential election).
1) Why would you say you are someone with a deep knowledge of the Republican Party today?
I’ve been involved in Republican politics for over 45 years and have developed deep personal relationships with each of the last six Republican Presidents. I maintain personal and professional connections to many of the current Republican leaders in the party, the Congress and a broad spectrum of policy makers. I know where the party has been, where it is today and where it is going tomorrow.
2) You have chosen to stay in the party and fight for it, even though you are deeply worried about what Donald Trump has done to the party and the USA. Why?
WORLD BRIEFING: May 3, 2024
Very simply, the world needs a functioning Republican Party or else it will fall into disrepair or worse, a new dark age led by Putin or Xi. To that end, the Republican Party needs to have a coherent foreign policy that engages the world, recognizing threats and appropriately dealing with them. Frankly, probably 80 percent of the party rank and file could agree with this statement. It is up to those of us in the party who passionately believe in the ideals of United States to fight for this 80 percent and bring more of them to our side. How can we do that if we are not in the party?
Many of your readers may scoff at what I just said. But your readers are quite intelligent - so consider this: 1/3 of the party would never support Trump in a COMPETITIVE primary (think Nikki Haley’s vote). 1/3 of the party just wants to back the winner and fight Democrats (these are the tribal Republicans). 1/3 of the party strongly backs Trump for a variety of reasons - policy, personality, etc. So 2/3rds of the party could/will back a candidate in the future who is a John McCain or Nikki Haley Republican. Just as easily as Trump took over the party in 2016, his people could lose it just as easily in 2028. I’m ready to fight for the party that played an outsized role in winning the Cold War.
3) You followed the twists and turns of the Republican Party’s internal debate over Ukraine closely, what happened to change things in the end?
Easy question: it was the right thing to do and it was now or never. The leaders realized that they couldn’t wait any longer and Ukraine needed supplies or else it would suffer catastrophic battlefield losses. It was also clear that Putin was not stopping in the Donbas and frankly probably wouldn’t stop with control over Ukraine. The leaders saw some of the moves happening in the Balkans and realized that could be the next front. For those who didn’t fully believe that, it was clear that weakness from the west in Ukraine would only encourage Chinese expansionism. So defeating Putin without one American soldier’s life being put at risk kills two birds with one stone: stopping Russian and Chinese expansion.
4) In your estimation, why did Speaker Johnson decide in the end to bring the Ukraine aid bill to the floor and then vote for it?
Speaker Johnson was getting intel reports about the deteriorating situation on the Ukrainian frontlines. He had to make a choice and he didn’t want to go down in history as Neville Chamberlain. He’s a good man, doing the best he can in a job he was thrust into under really unfavorable circumstances.
5) What would say was Donald Trump’s role in all this?
His role was minimal by design. In reality, Donald Trump despises war. Unfortunately, he also admires aspects of Putin’s leadership style and despises Ukraine’s leadership for perceived support of Joe Biden during the Trump presidency. Trump would much prefer to withdraw US support for Ukraine and focus on migration and trade. He also knows he needs to win the election to stay out of jail. Given that Nikki Haley’s supporters are critical to his chances of winning in November and those supporters care about Ukraine, Trump knew he needed to kind of/sort of punt on the Ukraine vote. If Trump had actually supported the Ukraine bill then many more of his most die hard supporters in Congress would have voted yes. It’s telling that they didn’t and foreshadows what Trump’s policy toward Ukraine will be.
6) What is your best guess about how Nikki Haley Republicans vote in November 2024?
Nikki Haley Republicans will vote for Donald Trump in November. Bill Barr, former Trump AG, is a typical example. He was very vocal in his support for anyone but Trump in 2024. But once the choice became binary, he backed Trump. Almost all Nikki Haley Republicans will make the same decision. Unfortunately, tribalism is a powerful force. The USA is no different from other countries in this regard.
7) What do you believe Donald Trump would do about Ukraine and Russia if he is elected in November?
Donald Trump wants to avoid an inherited war similar to what Richard Nixon dealt with in Vietnam. Trump’s plan will be to pressure Ukraine (by threatening to cut off military aid) to trade land for peace. Trump will then call himself a peacemaker and move onto other issues. Of course, in reality this will solve nothing and just allow Russia to claim it defeated NATO and Europe, re-arm and try again to takeover Ukraine from a stronger position in a few years. Moscow and St Petersburg will soak in the glorious victory of Mother Russia while the miserable outer Oblasts pay for it in blood.
8) If he (Trump) loses, what are the chances that someone like Nikki Haley could lead Republicans in a different direction?
2028 will be an all-out war between the 1/3 of the party that supports Trump and the 1/3 that is anti-Trump. The primary will be decided by the 1/3 of the tribal Republicans who just want to back a winner and fight Democrats. The anti-Trump crowd will have one big advantage: Trump will not be in the primary. All the aspiring wannabe candidates will try to mimic Trump ala Vivek Ramaswamy and will fight for the hardcore Trump supporters thus dividing them in an inverse 2016 scenario. There will be fewer candidates in the Nikki Haley/traditionalist lane. If that lane consolidates quickly, the Trump lane will fight each other to death and the tribalists will start to back the traditionalist candidate as the “winner”. It might be hard to see now, but that’s how the pendulum will swing back in 2028
I truly believe that Trump is like Robespierre in this respect: he has a very flexible ideology wrapped in patriotism. But ultimately Trump only cares about upending institutions, customs and norms. That can’t last for long. The question is what will follow Trump because whatever does will write the rules of the road for generations (similar to the Congress of Vienna or Pax Americana post WWII). That pen must not be ceded to China.
So tying everything together: if Trump loses in 2024, the odds are that a Republican will win in 2028 and that Republican will be from the non-Trump lane. It will fall to those of us who remain in the party to make sure we quickly consolidate that lane, develop a cogent set of policies that appeal across the party and bring back principles that encourage stability in the world, address challenges around technological advancement and confront our top geopolitical competitor in China in way that avoids war but preserves western democratic values.
Our challenges now seem enormous, but democracy always seems to find the right leader when it absolutely needs one. I believe 2028 will be that year and I want to be in the middle of that battle.
Phillips P. OBrien is Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St Andrew, Scotland.
Reprinted from the author’s blog Phillips’s Newsletter. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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Comments (2)
Why are we never told who this “senior Republican” is ?
That “senior Republican” is wrong, repeatedly.
Answer number (2); “ …the world needs a functioning Republican Party or else it will fall into despair or worse…”. !! Excuse me !! The current Republican Party is working hard to accomplish despair and worse now, and coming close to succeeding !
Answer number (3); “…it was the right thing to do and it was now or never…”. It was the right thing to do, but should have been done six months ago.
Answer number (5); “…[Donald Trump’s] role in the Ukraine aid decision was minimal by design…”. Excuse me ! Donald Trumps role can only be described as destructive for months. He single handed lay takes credit for shoving a noteworthy percentage of MAGA influence into the hard over negative.
Answer number (6); “…Nikki Haley Republicans will vote for Donal Trump in November...” So wrong. I was/am a Nikki Haley Republican. I am “Barred. Permanently.” Donald Trump makes me vomit. I would vote for Danny DeVito, my next door neighbor or the squirrel in my back yard before I would vote for Trump.
Answer number (7) is good and restores some of this guys credibility.
Answer number (8) “…[Trump] has a very flexible ideology wrapped in patriotism…”. Wrong. Trump has a destructive determination to stay out of jail, zero understanding of right and wrong, an ego and narcissistic dominant personality that have no place in the White House.
@Doug, you are one dumb fucker! Assholes like you should vote for Biden since you deserve him.
@DOUG THE DUMMY, Congratulations Doug. Every time an Orc Troll leaves this type of comment, you have made a solid comment. Wear it like a badge of honor.
@Doug, Right on!. Even the people putintrump hired during his White House years think he is either a moron or traitor....most likely both. Here are a just a few quotes:
1. His third national security adviser, John Bolton: “I believe (foreign leaders) think he is a laughing fool.”
2. His first secretary of defense, James Mattis: “Donald Trump is the first president in my lifetime who does not try to unite the American people – does not even pretend to try. Instead he tries to divide us.”
3. His second secretary of defense, Mark Esper: “I think he’s unfit for office. … He puts himself before country. His actions are all about him and not about the country. And then, of course, I believe he has integrity and character issues as well.”
4. His second chief of staff, John Kelly: “A person that has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our Constitution, and the rule of law. There is nothing more that can be said. God help us.”
5. His first secretary of the Navy, Richard Spencer: “…the president has very little understanding of what it means to be in the military, to fight ethically or to be governed by a uniform set of rules and practices.”
6. 18. His first homeland security adviser, Tom Bossert: “The President undermined American democracy baselessly for months. As a result, he’s culpable for this siege, and an utter disgrace.”
The bad putinrump quotes go on and on. I can post dozens more if anyone wants?
The individual voiced a willingness to promote Biden's re-election, for party gain. Biden is destroying his own Country in multiple ways. The author sounded intelligent, but the destruction of my country through open borders, moral degradation and a constantly lying administration (for the sake of future party gain) is both evil and ignorant. The individual comes from a position of both arrogance and presumption that he knows the future. It is intelligence posing as wisdom. Those willing to trade freedom for political power, deserve neither. As Scripture teaches us: Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.
@Btian, Since you ended your comment with Scripture from Romans 1:22, allow me to respond with Exodus 20:16 - 'Thou shalt not bear false witness against thy neighbor.'
* The border between the U.S. and Mexico is not 'open.' The record amounts of illegal drugs, especially fentanyl, being seized at the border, along with record numbers of deportations are just two facts that blow up your GOP talking point of 'open borders' into dust. The most restrictive border policy in American history and supported by Biden was on track until it was trashed by Trump two months ago, because he wanted the issue to stay alive in the misinformed minds of American voters, which you claim to be.
* 'moral degradation'? You mean forcing Americans to live according to your narrow values? America is a place where one can pursue happiness. If a couple of dudes want to exchange rings and get a house together is an example of 'moral degredation', my counter is if they are not bothering anyone, then it is none of your Goddamn business!
* 'Constantly lying administration'? No ... that's the orange-colored other guy. Biden's administration is remarkable in its transparency and honesty. Name one lie told to the American people by Biden's administration. I dare you! Name one. You won't because you can't.
The bad-faith arguments (lies) made by people like 'BTIAN' keep flooding the Kyiv Post. All we can do is shine a light on these lying liars who just lie.
@Coach John, wow! You certainly are one stupid sob. Enjoy living in Fanatsyland. And BTW the good ole USA is corrupt immoral and being flushed down the shitter.
@Coach John, Nicely done take-down of an MRGA troll!