Russian President Vladimir told his National Security Council on Monday once again addressed “nuclear” issues – not for the first time. He spoke about the readiness of the country’s nuclear forces to respond to “threats” alongside the usual criticisms of the West, which, he said “destabilizes stability.”
He said that Russia was ready to abide by the [suspended] Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) if the US agreed to abide by it.
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He said that the deployment of Moscow’s nuclear weapons was forced upon them “as a result of the West’s destructive steps, the foundations for dialogue between nuclear states have been seriously undermined.” In particular, this includes US deployment of weapons in space.
He said that the world faced a breakdown in “strategic stability,” and that Russia was not interested in a new arms race but was ready to respond to any threats with force.
What was behind these statements? Nuclear blackmail or an attempt to remind the world of Russia’s nuclear potential or just another diplomatic game?
Nuclear blackmail
Putin has used the threat of nuclear escalation to blackmail the West from long before his full-scale invasion but increasingly since February 2022. It was this ultimate threat that led the Biden administration to limit its support to Ukraine while declaring the avoidance of a direct clash between Russia and the US as justification.
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The first threats were made in April 2022, less than two months after the start of the invasion then even more threateningly when he announced mobilization in the Russian Federation on September 21.
“Those who try to blackmail us with nuclear weapons must know that the wind rose may turn in their direction,” he said, adding that Russia “will use all available means for its defense.”
A new wave of nuclear threats followed the Kremlin’s strike on an industrial enterprise in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro using the “Oreshnik” medium-range ballistic missile. This was preceded during a press briefing by the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Maria Zakharova who declared that the reason for the “special military operation” was alleged nuclear escalation by Ukraine along with claims by Dmitry Medvedev, former president and deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, that the West “is preparing for nuclear conflict with Russia.”
Putin’s 2025 statements alongside incursions by drones over Poland and Romania and nuclear capable aircraft Estonia appear even more threatening than ever.
However, US President Donald Trump’s special representative Keith Kellogg says that Russia’s new alliances with China, Iran, and North Korea pose a greater threat to the world community but, at the same time, said Putin’s aggressive nuclear boasts cannot be ignored but must be responded to.
The question is how?
For Ukraine nuclear threats mean little under current conditions – every day it faces aerial onslaughts that kill its citizens and destroy their homes and infrastructure. Meanwhile Russia’s military uses its entire arsenal of conventional weapons along with prohibited chemical means. In light of this it is unlikely that Ukraine would agree to Putin’s demands for peace even with the addition of nuclear threats.
Diplomatic games or an attempt to negotiate?
It is possible that under pressure of the current circumstances that may worry Putin force him to use “nuclear arguments” to maintain influence and face.
Experts have told Kyiv Post they believe that the main target for Putin’s statements about the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty is Trump in an effort to put off the imposition of US sanctions, just as he did after the summit in Alaska, since when Trump said on his recent visit to the UK that Putin had “let him down.”
“Putin cannot lose Trump. The nuclear issue is important, and with statements about ‘compliance with the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty,’ Putin may simply want to buy more time for some meeting of his representatives with Trump’s team,” a government source involved in the diplomatic process said.
On the other hand, Putin may truly be concerned about Trump’s new projects, such as the “Golden Dome” defensive system which could neutralize Russia’s strategic nuclear forces in the future. This even more so as the Kremlin’s nuclear arsenal is are not in the best condition – it is more than 30 years since it carried out successful missile tests and it lost so many strategic aircraft as a result of Ukraine’s June “SpiderWeb” operation.
Putin’s statement about his unwillingness to take part in an “arms race,” is most likely a result of an economy struggling under sanctions, constantly balanced on the brink of decline and inflation, threats of stagflation, and technological dependence on China. Any attempt to compete in an arms race with the US is unlikely to succeed as the vast cost of the war in Ukraine, is constantly growing.
If this is indeed so, Putin’s new statements may be not only blackmail but also an attempt to enter new negotiations with the US and other nuclear nations while its economic situation still allows this.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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