How likely is mobilization in Russia, do the Russians support the war, and what resources can Russia mobilize?
According to the military intelligence general Vadym Skibitsky, the topic of mobilization has been discussed by the leaders of the Russian Federation since the very beginning of the military conflict. During this period, when the Russian army suffered its first losses, especially in the Kyiv and Chernihiv Regions and in southern Ukraine, they began to use different approaches to replenish their resources and losses.
So-called volunteer battalions and battalions of reservists were formed, and the same private military companies were involved. Then the formation of the third army corps began – the creation of new associations of Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
Later on, President Putin’s decree to increase the size of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to 137,000 soldiers appeared – aimed at replenishing resources and continuing further active combat operations.
An announcement of general mobilization would be a significant blow to Putin’s regime because it would mean recognizing that Russia has not been able to fulfill all the tasks it declared, that Putin’s so-called “special operation” has not achieved results, and real war is being fought.
In addition, declaring a general mobilization would mean declaring war on Ukraine and recognizing that Russia is an aggressor.
Today, we have begun to collect information – rhetoric about mobilization has dramatically increased in the Russian Federation. [Russian Communist Party leader] Gennady Zyuganov and other Russian political representatives say that yes, there is, in fact, a war and that the Russian army cannot cope. There is a need to declare war and begin mobilization. At the same time, Russian officials say that they will wage war not just with Ukraine but with NATO and the U.S. because they are fighting on the Ukrainian side.
Russia understands that in order to seize the entire territory of Ukraine, which is the primary goal, sooner or later, it will be necessary to enlist additional resources. The announcement of general mobilization would only be a positive thing to us because the protest mood in Russia is weak, but young people do not want to go to war.
“We have analyzed Russian society and concluded that in the main those who support Putin’s war are people who are 50 years old and who will not be going to war,” Skibitsky told Kyiv Post. “Young people in their twenties and thirties are needed on the front. Because of that, this announcement of general mobilization would be an indicator that will show the readiness of the Russian people to continue this bloody war.”
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