Good morning from Kyiv where the weather is finally warm enough to venture out without a coat and the parks are full of families enjoying the sun. Aside from one drone attack in 25 days and a very impressive meteor, the skies are – almost – peaceful.

After a brutal winter characterized by regular mass-missile attacks, it’s fair to say the Ukrainian capital is getting used to a new normal of sorts.

Kyiv Post measured the mood of the city over the weekend, with one resident saying: “There was a feeling not long ago that we were doomed. But now we are OK.”

You can read the full report here.

What’s happening today?

According to Russian state media, the Kremlin’s long-vaunted T-14 battle tanks are making their debut in Ukraine. While on paper they are formidable, in reality they have been beset with a multitude of problems.

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Earlier this year, the British Defense Ministry said: “Any T-14 deployment is likely to be a high-risk decision for Russia. Eleven years in development, the program has been dogged with delays, reduction in planned fleet size, and reports of manufacturing problems…

“If Russia deploys the T-14, it will likely primarily be for propaganda purposes. Production is probably only in the low tens, while commanders are unlikely to trust the vehicle in combat.”

In the world of international diplomacy, everyone is still digesting a rather remarkable session of the UN Security Council during which Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov tried to defend the very charter his country breached when it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024
Other Topics of Interest

ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 22, 2024

Latest from the Institute for the Study of War.

UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres denounced the “devastation” caused by Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, saying in front of Lavrov that the Russian invasion was a violation of international law and is “causing massive suffering” to the Ukrainian people.

You can read more about that story here.

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What was in President Zelensky’s latest message?

The warm spring weather may only have just started but President Zelensky announced during his daily address on Monday evening that preparations are already underway to ensure Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is ready for winter.

He said: “I also held a special coordination meeting in Zhytomyr with all those responsible for the region. We discussed in detail the security, economic and social situation in the region.

“We have made decisions, in particular, to restore the energy sector after the Russian strikes.

“We are already preparing our energy sector for the next winter.”

What’s the latest military situation?

The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) update on April 25 focuses on Russia’s casualties, saying there has been a decrease in the number of troops being killed and wounded over the last few weeks.

The MoD notes: “Figures released by the Ukrainian General Staff suggest a reduction from a daily average of 776 Russian casualties in March, to an average of 568 so far in April. Defence Intelligence cannot verify Ukraine’s exact methodology, but the general trend is likely accurate.

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“Russia’s losses have highly likely reduced as their attempted winter offensive has failed to achieve its objectives, and Russian forces are now focused on preparing for anticipated Ukrainian offensive operations.”

The Institute for the Study of War’s April 24 daily assessment covers a multitude of topics, most notably:

·      Russian milbloggers speculated that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered additional military command changes on April 20.

·      Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin has launched an information operation to undermine the credibility of Russian state-affiliated private military groups (PMCs).

·      Kremlin authorities proposed equalizing pay between mobilized personnel and volunteers likely in an attempt to incentivize military service.

And that’s it for today’s Morning Memo.

Kyiv Post will bring you the latest news throughout the day and we’ll be back with another edition tomorrow.

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