Ukraine Summer Offensive Update for June 30: ‘After Brutal Fights, This Is All That’s Left of Us’

Snapshot

Ukraine claimed to have the “strategic initiative” near Bakhmut with reported gains of up to 1.5 kilometers on the city’s flanks. Ukrainian gains were also claimed at Pryiutne in the Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk region boundary zone; Russian units in the south and east reportedly surrendered.

Analysis

Acclaimed US-based military analyst Max Boot said:

“The Ukrainians are going slowly because they are trying to limit their casualties - something that bloodthirsty Russian commanders don’t care about.

“It is doubtful that any Western military could do any better without air superiority. The Ukrainians are hoping to limit their losses by interdicting Russian supply lines with long-range strikes utilizing British Storm Shadow cruise missiles…

“Most of Ukraine’s nine Western-trained and Western-equipped assault brigades have not even entered the fight yet… The vast majority of Ukraine’s Western tanks and armored vehicles remain intact.

“What we are seeing now are probing attacks to find a weak spot in the Russian lines or create one.”

General Developments, including Luhansk, Avdiivka, Marinka, etc.

Russian and Ukrainian forces continued to exchange limited ground attacks south of Kreminna in Luhansk, according to ISW. This includes the Serebryanka forest.

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City front.

Other Topics of Interest

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Germany is the EU country that has taken in the most Ukrainian refugees, about a third of the total. However, only about 18% were employed in January 2024, one of the lowest rates in the OECD.

The Crimea-based Atesh partisan group stated that Russian forces are increasing their presence in Armyansk to defend key infrastructure in northern Crimea, according to ISW.

Russia conducted 29 air raids and 60 attacks using MLRS, according to the Ukrainian General Staff.

 Zone A. TO518 / Mokry Yaly River Axis - boundary of Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions

The Ukrainian General Staff and Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar both said Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations on the administrative border between Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk regions, including “partial success” along the Rivnopil-Volodyne line (up to 16 km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).

Ukrainian forces made advances near Pryiutne, according to pro-Russian sources. 

A video circulated on social media of surrendered Russian soldiers of the 34th brigade of the “Storm” detachment. They became POWs after fierce fighting near Pryiutne where their company of 150 people was left with only 20. They complain about the lack of supply of ammunition, water, food and evacuation of the wounded and dead.

Russian forces counterattacked “without success” near Staromayorsk and Rivnopil, according to pro-Russian sources. 

Zone B. Western Zaporizhzhia

Ukrainian forces continued their attack on Robotyne, according to Russian sources.

Russian forces in early May constructed a dam on the outskirts of Tokmak in the occupied western Zaporizhzhia region ahead of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, according to ISW. 

Zone C. Bakhmut

The Ukrainian General Staff said Ukrainian forces seized the “strategic initiative” near Bakhmut direction and are currently conducting a broad offensive in the area.

Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar said Ukrainian forces seized the “operational initiative” in the area and reported that Ukrainian forces advanced 1.2 kilometers in the direction of Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut) and 1.5 kilometers in the direction of Kurdyumivka (13 km southwest of Bakhmut).

Ukrainian milbloggers claimed that a Ukrainian assault at Klishchivka was “massively successful” resulting in advancing and winning several trench line positions along a key canal. They cited individual soldier accounts of encircling a Russian airborne infantry company and that company surrendering.