Key Takeaways from the ISW:

  • China and Turkey continue to pursue their own negotiation platforms for a settlement in Ukraine, which the Kremlin is exploiting to further its own information operations aimed at discouraging continued international support for Ukraine.
  • Recent relatively high Russian aviation losses appear to be prompting a significant decrease in Russian aviation activity in eastern Ukraine, although it is unclear how long this decrease in activity will last.
  • Delays in Western security assistance will likely make Ukraine’s energy infrastructure more vulnerable to Russian strikes.
  • Russian forces operating around Avdiivka appear to be adapting to conducting offensive ground operations with trained and untrained personnel.
  • German officials confirmed that the Kremlin is conducting an information operation aimed at deterring Western states, particularly Germany, from sending additional military aid to Ukraine.
  • The Russian Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) announced on March 3 that the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) conducted a localized counter-terrorism operation in Karabulak, Republic of Ingushetia.
  • Positional engagements continued throughout the theater on March 3.
  • Russian regional administrations continue efforts to expand the aperture of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

Authors: Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Riley Bailey, and Kateryna Stepanenko.

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