A recent poll conducted by a think tank, the European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR), in 15 countries, including Ukraine, found that when forced to capitulate to Russia by either giving up some land or some sovereignty, 45 percent of Ukrainians said they’d rather lose some land already under Russian occupation.

Not being willing to capitulate at all was not a survey option, however, 29 percent of respondents said they “Don’t know” how to respond to the Berlin-based think tank’s question.

Only 26 percent say they would prefer to see Ukraine regain all occupied territory but then “demilitarize” and become a so-called “neutral country,” not joining the EU and the NATO defensive alliance.


The survey does not ask how a non-NATO, demilitarized Ukraine defends itself against future genocidal invasions.

A majority, 65 percent of Ukrainians, said they trusted President Volodymyr Zelensky – with 34 percent of polled Ukrainians expressing “strong” trust and an additional 31 percent trusting him “considerably.”

When questioned about the likely outcome of the war, 58 percent of Ukrainians predicted a victory, 30 percent anticipated a settlement, and only 1 percent foresaw a Russian victory.

British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 15 July 2024
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British Defence Intelligence Update Ukraine 15 July 2024

Latest from the British Defence Intelligence.

In contrast to the Ukrainians, the poll found that those surveyed from other European countries consider a negotiated settlement with Russia as the most likely outcome of Russia's invasion.

The think tank found that overall, large majorities in most countries still back sending more arms to Ukraine.

However, it found that a majority of the surveyed see providing arms as a way to bolster Ukraine's position in future talks with Russia, rather than achieving an outright victory.


In the 14 European countries polled, only in Estonia did a plurality (38 percent) of those surveyed believe Ukraine would win outright.

Majorities of those surveyed in Sweden and Poland support aiding Ukraine until all of its territory is reclaimed.

Those surveyed in Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria opposed increasing arms supplies to Ukraine.

A middle group of those surveyed from the Czech Republic, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland, showed no clear consensus on the war and the EU's role.

No surveyed country favored sending troops to Ukraine.

Within Ukraine, 69 percent of respondents said that more weapons are necessary for Ukraine’s defense.

A substantial 75 percent viewed the EU’s role positively and deemed Ukraine's membership crucial for winning the war.

When asked to rank the reliability of foreign support, Ukrainians rated the UK highest at 88 percent, followed by Lithuania at 77 percent, with most listed countries viewed as reliable.

However, a third of Ukrainians surveyed expressed concern that the US might attempt to negotiate a peace deal with Russia without Kyiv's involvement.

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