Poland’s 2025 Presidential Race: Liberal Trzaskowski Nets Razor-Thin Victory Over Conservative Nawrocki

On May 18, the Polish electorate voted in the first round of the presidential elections.

Final results released on Monday show 31.36% for center-right Civic Platform Rafał Trzaskowski and 29.54% for Karol Nawrocki, an independent candidate and historian supported by the nationalist-conservative Law & Order Party (PiS), according to the national election commission.

Earlier, exit polls by TVP Info show Trzaskowski leading with 30.8% of the votes, followed by Nawrocki’s 29.1%. Right-wing libertarian, Sławomir Mentzen, trailed in third with 15.4%.

Thirteen candidates participated in the first round.

A neighbor and key ally of Ukraine, Poland has provided over €5.3 billion ($5.9 billion) in military, humanitarian, and financial support to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression since 2022. In addition to this support, Poland provides shelter to nearly one million Ukrainian refugees.

Trzaskowski, mayor of Warsaw since 2018, is a member of the pro-European Civic Platform, the party of Poland’s Prime Minister, Donald Tusk. In 2020, Trzaskowski ran for president but narrowly lost to PiS candidate Andrzej Duda. Trzaskowski’s campaign emphasizes strategic investments in the economy, community development, and economic innovation, while promoting deregulation and bolstering national defense.

The main opponent for Trazskowski is PiS candidate Nawrocki. Nawrocki’s campaign focuses on reducing taxes, implementing stricter immigration policies, strengthening the military, and repealing the European Union’s Green Deal.

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Stance on Ukraine

Trzaskowski is open to Ukrainian EU membership, but has expressed concern over historical and economic hurdles that first need to be tackled. Trzaskowski generally supports NATO membership for Ukraine and has emphasized that Russia should not win the war.

All Ukrainians living in Poland are eligible to receive child support via the Family 800 plus program.

Trzaskowski has proposed a broadly supported policy wherein only Ukrainians who pay taxes are eligible to receive benefits from the Family 800 plus program.     

In January 2025, during an appearance on the TV program “Guest of Events,” Nawrocki declared that he did not see Ukraine joining the EU or NATO, until Ukraine and Poland resolved the matter of the Volhynia massacre, which occurred during World War II. Since January, progress has been made by Tusk and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky towards resolving this delicate issue.

Nawrocki promised to continue to support Ukraine in its war efforts against Russia, but thinks that Zelensky is not grateful enough for the help Ukraine received. Nawrocki, labeled an enemy by Russia and placed on its wanted list,  believes US President Donald Trump will enhance Central Europe’s security. Generally, Nawrocki has expressed a greater affinity for Trump than for European partners.

Expectations

According to the Polish Minister of Digital Affairs Krzysztof Gawkowski, Russia is attempting to interfere in the Polish electoral process. As anticipated, Trzaskowski secured victory in the first round of the Polish presidential election and will face Nawrocki in a runoff.

Trzaskowski currently holds the lead in projections for the runoff elections according to a recent poll by Poland’s TVN24 news agency. The runoff election is scheduled for June 1. Should Trzaskowski win the Polish presidency, it would strengthen Tusk’s ability to govern effectively.