Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski told reporters on Thursday that military spending could lead to the downfall of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s regime.
His comments were made following Wednesday’s historic NATO summit at the Hague, where NATO’s 32 members committed to a new defense spending target of five percent of GDP.
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“Putin should understand that he is on the path of [Soviet leader Leonid] Brezhnev. He himself once said that the Soviet Union collapsed because it spent too much on armament, and now he is doing exactly the same thing,” Sikorski said in an interview with AFP.
High levels of debt from the late Cold War arms race are considered a major factor in the collapse of the Soviet Union, on top of economic stagnation, Gorbachev’s reforms, national tensions within the Soviet Union, and other factors.
This comes as there are increasing warning signs for the Russian economy.
Despite economic sanctions, Russia’s economy grew in 2023 and 2024, driven by military spending. However, recent data for the first quarter of 2025 indicate a decrease in the rate of expansion of the Russian economy and possible warning signs of stagnation and recession.
“Some specialists and experts are pointing to the risks of stagnation and even a recession. This must not be allowed to happen under any circumstances,” Putin told attendees in an address at Russia’s flagship economic forum in Saint Petersburg on June 20.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has taken note of the economic slowdown in Russia.
“Well, the Russian economy is already crumbling. We will support this process even more. Ayatollah Putin can look at his friends in Iran to see where such regimes end up, and how far into decay they drive their countries,” said Zelensky in comments on June 21.
“He [Putin] is waging a very expensive war and also provoked, scared the whole West into reinforcing its defence spending... We are doing it because Putin is threatening us,” Sikorski added, in reference to Wednesday’s new NATO defense spending commitments.
According to current data from the International Monetary Fund, the EU economy is nearly $20 trillion, and the Russian economy is slightly more than $2 trillion.
“This means that from an economy the size of Texas, Putin will have to squeeze out even more defence funds. Hopefully with a similar result for the regime (to that of the Soviet Union), but faster,” said the Polish foreign minister.
Recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Institute shows that Russia spent $149 billion in 2024, 7% of its GDP and 19% of all government spending. Ukraine’s military spending in 2024 was 64.7 billion, which is 34% of its GDP. This means Ukraine has the largest military burden of any country in 2024.
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