Does Vladimir Putin believe that Donald Trump has truly changed his stance on Russia and Ukraine, and is now preparing to pursue a new policy?
The short answer is no. Putin views Trump’s entire political approach as a series of emotional swings. A period of cooling off will inevitably be followed by a warming phase, and Trump will continue to alternate between playing the good cop and the bad cop.
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The oscillations may become more pronounced, but from Putin’s perspective, it’s nothing more than emotional blackmail. He expects that Trump’s threats and flattery will continue to take turns.
Is the Russian political elite alarmed by the fact that Trump and Zelensky reportedly discussed strikes on Moscow and St. Petersburg? Quite the opposite.
The way it was reported – and the immediate denial by the White House – only convinced Russia’s political elite that the matter was not serious. Senior Russian officials, such as former president Dmitry Medvedev, and the Russian propaganda machine regularly threaten nuclear strikes against the US and the EU. Everyone understands this is mere bluff.
In this context, Trump’s tentative question to President Zelensky about possible strikes sounds like a timid threat that will never materialize. Moscow is absolutely certain that Europeans are far more afraid of Russian nuclear blackmail than Russians are of a strike on Moscow or St. Petersburg.
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Primarily because Western public opinion would hardly support civilian casualties in those cities – while in Russia, no one would ask the public’s opinion. Public opinion, as a concept, has not existed in Russia for many years.
Finally, does Vladimir Putin take seriously Trump’s ultimatum that starting in September, additional sanctions and severe tariffs will be imposed on countries that purchase Russian oil?
No, because in Moscow this is considered entirely unrealistic. Any real sanctions on Russian oil or gas would have a catastrophic impact on the global energy market. Gasoline prices would soar in the US, and Putin believes Trump cannot afford that.
Nor can the US afford to punish the major importers of Russian oil, which currently are China, India, and Turkey. Turkey is a key US ally in the Middle East, and launching a trade war with Turkey over Russia – at a time when Syria, Iran, and Israel are at stake – would be highly irrational.
Going after India for the same reason also seems bizarre, as India is a major Global South power with which the US currently has no problems. Creating a conflict from scratch would likely be unwise. As for China, the US simply lacks any additional leverage – full-scale confrontation is already underway and cannot be escalated further.
From this sober viewpoint, Russia’s political and business elites are convinced that talk of new sanctions will remain just that – talk. Moreover, they believe that over the past three years Russia has prepared so extensively for sanctions and adapted so well to isolation that a new sanctions regime poses little threat. They think Russia has survived worse.
From the perspective of Russia’s ruling elite, Trump’s own political prospects look increasingly bleak, which means there is no point in making real political concessions in exchange for a fleeting agreement with the current president. In a year or three, Trump may no longer be in the White House—Putin, they believe, can easily outlast him.
Mikhail Zygar is a Russian Journalist and writer, now arrested by Putin’s court (in absentia). Author of “All the Kremlin’s Men” and “War and Punishment.” Columnist for Der Spiegel and The New York Times. Visiting Professor in Columbia
Reprinted from the author’s blog The Last Pioneer. See the original here.
The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily those of Kyiv Post.
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