The leak of the Trump administration’s latest framework for a Ukraine settlement has detonated in Washington and Kyiv like a political explosive device. But according to veteran intelligence analyst Paul Goble, the proposal is fundamentally unworkable.
The former State Department special adviser and CIA analyst says the circulated documents – which he characterizes as “one-sided” concessions to Moscow – rest on a fatal miscalculation: the belief that stopping the fighting equals solving the conflict.
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In an interview with Kyiv Post on Thursday, Goble offered a blistering critique, arguing the initiative looks less like a serious attempt at a durable peace and more like a political performance by President Donald Trump designed to showcase deference to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin.
Real goal: deference and domestic cover
Goble says the US administration’s motivation appears to be a blend of personal and domestic political calculation. First, he believes, “Trump is trying to show how deferential he’s prepared to be to Putin.”
At the same time, Goble argues, the US president may be banking on congressional Republicans to block the deal if it becomes politically toxic.
“If he has to back away, he can say, ‘Well, I tried, but, you know, we have domestic political things too,’” Goble said.
A deeper political current, in his view, involves Trump’s own longstanding business ambitions. “I really think... Trump believes that if he can just get this, the fighting stopped, everything will be solved, and then he can develop his economic interests in the Russian Federation,” he said.
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Goble added that Trump appears convinced that “you stop the fighting, and that solves the problem,” a belief he calls a profound mistake.
On the ground: a plan headed for collapse
But Goble argues that the most immediate rejection will come from Kyiv, which he believes will refuse to accept the blueprint outright. The proposals circulating, he says, are far too generous to the Kremlin.
“I don’t see any way that Ukrainians are going to accept anything close to what plans that I’ve seen circulated. They’re one sided, they’re concessions of the Russians, and I think there will be enormous resistance,” he warned.
For Ukrainians who have watched their people be “killed, massively” and their property “destroyed,” Goble says the idea of endorsing such terms is politically impossible.
“I don’t think the Ukrainians are going to look too kindly at anybody who says, now to end this war, what you’ve got to do is basically do what the Russians want,” he said.
He added bluntly: “I simply don’t believe that [it’s] going to go that way.”
The core error, Goble argues, is the assumption that a neat agreement can be struck “that Kyiv will accept it, that the Ukrainian people will accept it, and that we will have peace in our time.”
Coming reckoning: US-Ukraine relations at risk
The failure of the plan, Goble warns, would not simply stall diplomacy – it would severely damage America’s relationship with one of its most critical European allies.
If Washington tries to pressure Kyiv into granting Russia the concessions outlined in the leaks, he predicts deep resentment inside Ukraine.
“It will poison some Ukrainians [against] the United States,” he said.
In that scenario, the US – Ukraine’s principal military and political backer – would be blamed alongside the Kremlin for insisting Kyiv accept territorial and political losses.
“The US will be blamed for having accepted what the Russians want… And then the US will be in the minds of some Ukrainians [blamed] as well as Russians,” Goble said.
The result, he argues, would be a “very frightening situation” in which Washington manages to alienate Kyiv without achieving any real peace—an outcome he sees as a political fiasco in both countries.
In Goble’s view, “the proposed settlement is not a settlement.”
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