US Intelligence Warns Iran Unlikely to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Soon

Iran is unlikely to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in the near future, according to US intelligence reports cited by three sources familiar with the matter, Reuters reported.

The classified assessments identify control over the waterway as Tehran’s only effective leverage against the US. Intelligence officials suggest that Iran intends to keep the strait’s capacity restricted to maintain high energy prices and pressure US President Donald Trump into a negotiated settlement.

The reports indicate that the conflict, originally aimed at degrading Iran’s military capabilities, may instead be highlighting Tehran’s regional influence by demonstrating its ability to threaten a global maritime chokepoint. Analysts have long warned that a military campaign against Iran, which controls one side of the strait, could result in a protracted ground war with significant costs for the US.

The intelligence warning comes as the UN Security Council remains deadlocked over the crisis. On Friday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov signaled that Moscow might veto a US-backed draft resolution on the strait, arguing that the current language authorizing “all necessary defensive measures” could legitimize aggression. China has also publicly opposed any wording that could authorize the use of force, calling for a political settlement instead.

In response to the blockade, Tehran has proposed a “pay-to-pass” system in coordination with Oman, which would require vessels to obtain special permits and licenses. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas rejected the proposal, stating that international law does not recognize such schemes and emphasizing that restoring “toll-free freedom of navigation” is an urgent priority.

Other Topics of Interest

Same US Pilot Shot Down Twice Over Iran

According to CBS News on Tuesday, the same US Air Force pilot was shot down twice within weeks during the current conflict with Iran. After surviving a friendly-fire incident involving Kuwaiti air defenses, the pilot was later rescued following the downing of an F-15E over Iran. Military officials described the case as an extraordinarily rare occurrence.

The standoff continues to pose a major threat to global energy markets, as approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas flows through the strait.

Despite the diplomatic impasse, Trump remains optimistic about a military solution. Writing on Truth Social on Friday, the US president  asserted that with “a little more time,” the US could reopen the strait and “make a fortune,” calling the resource “a gusher for the world.”