Decoding Putin

This year’s Russia Day celebration in Moscow had a distinctively different feel to it. Gone was the traditional grand concert on Red Square, presumably because the last time Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to hold an event there, he had to get permission from Ukraine first.

This year, the immovable dictator held a series of stage-managed events inside the Kremlin itself, one of which was a square/round table meeting with approximately 20 military figures in fatigues bearing medals for their participation in the war against Ukraine.

Here follows a transcript of Putin’s remarks to his guests – a decoding of what the meaning of these words and, where necessary, a debunking of the lies he told.

Remark 1

Putin: “Russia stands practically alone against the entire so-called collective west, in the form of the North Atlantic bloc, otherwise known as NATO. After all, all NATO countries, all of them without exception, are absolutely making every effort, doing everything possible to organize these hostile actions against Russia. To bring, they think, their victorious end to the war unleashed against Russia, when no one managed to achieve such a strategic final defeat of Russia.”

That’s quite the opening. The first and biggest lie is that NATO is at war with Russia. In fact, no NATO members are involved in the war between Russia and Ukraine, even though a few of them signed up to the Budapest Memorandum that had been designed to prevent such a war, but I digress.

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There are hostile actions being carried out against Russia, none maybe more hostile than the massive drone blitz over the Russian capital on the morning of June 18. These, though, are not the hostile acts of NATO – they are exclusively Ukrainian actions carried out fully within the laws of war.

To decode why Putin needs this lie, it is because he cannot admit to being beaten by Ukraine. In the chauvinistic mindset of Russia with regard to Ukraine, the former is the big boss, the latter is the much smaller and inferior subject that must submit to whatever demands and humiliations big brother decides on. Ukraine, therefore, cannot be beating Russia. The Russian psyche cannot accept such a scenario.

Remark 2

Putin: “Our multinational united people understand their responsibility to future generations, to our children and grandchildren – there are quite young people sitting here and you, god willing, will have grandchildren and so on, future generations, we must think about this. No one needs Russia except us. Only we are able to protect it, strengthen it, and create conditions for its confident development.”

Let’s start with the multinational people part. It is true that Russia is made up of many ethnic groups from the regions of that vast country. It is equally true that it is precisely these regions and the minorities that hail from them that have been predominantly tapped to provide the bulk of the fighting force sent into Ukraine. Far from being a “united” people, populations from Buryatia and Tuva have been plundered for cannon fodder. The regions of Bashkortostan and Tatarstan have some of the highest known casualty rates.

As for the future generations, the men sitting around that table were clearly alive, but with Russia closing in on 1.4 million casualties dead and severely wounded, and with a KIA/WIA ratio of at least (higher recently) 1:1, that’s 700,000 Russian men who will not be fathering children. Because they’re dead.

Remark 3

Putin: “Everyone is coming to us and uniting their efforts, including intellectual efforts. We must pay tribute to the fact that the level of development of NATO countries is technological, scientific, it is high. It is a highly developed economy, they are trying to achieve a strategic defeat. They tried, and now they understand that this is impossible. It is a task that cannot be accomplished. They overdid it when they publicly announced it.”

“Everyone?” Let’s be clear – Russia has few allies and those it has are questionable bed fellows. The most prominent foreign involvement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict is not from a NATO country, it is from North Korea, the crazy hermit fiefdom of the Kim dynasty.

Another prominent ally is Iran, from whom Russia has received significant military support including the Shahed drones that terrorize Ukrainian citizens in their homes. After Tehran stopped sending these drones in large numbers, they handed over the IP so that the Russians themselves could build them domestically, rebranded as the Geran.

Russia has one other ally, and that is China. What degree of support Beijing provides is the subject of debate, but China’s Foreign Minister said candidly in July 2025 that it would not allow Russia to lose this war, and in May 2026 Lithuania’s defense minister delivered a speech in which he said that Russia could not sustain this war without financial and military support from China.

So, “everyone” is the crazies in North Korea, the Mullahs in Iran, and the communist dictatorship in China.

Remark 4

Putin: “They were in a hurry – some even joined NATO to take part in the making of the pie. If there was no pie, I would have shown you all the gestures that they would achieve in this case. They will not achieve anything, we need to be one step ahead. There are many of them, a whole bunch, and we are one united multinational people. One. And we must not just respond to the challenges they pose to us, but be one step ahead.”

Now, why is Putin talking about pie making? You see, the pie is a metaphor, meaning Russia itself. He’s talking about the pie being divided up by and between NATO countries. This sounds crazy, because it is.

The underlying notion here is one of a “golden billion”, that is, one billion people in the decadent West who are fast running out of resources to maintain their hedonistic lifestyles and so as the owner of vast natural resources the evil cabal is intending to weaken Russia to the point that they can step in and control the riches that are abundantly present in the Russian Federation. In this scenario, the Russian people become slaves, and for those reasons this is an existential war. Not a bad tool to deploy to justify a potential upcoming further mobilization.

As supposed evidence of this plot, then US Secretary of State Madeline Albright spilled the beans back in 2006 when she supposedly said “it is unjust for Siberia’s vast resources to belong to Russia alone.” It didn’t matter that she never actually said this, because a retired FSB general had obtained these thoughts by using mind reading techniques on her. And, there’s the “proof.” Sweden and Finland joining NATO was apparently not because of their reflection that joining a collective defense alliance would be a good idea in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, it was for a piece of the pie. Those sneaky Nordic schemers.

Remark 5

Putin: “Step by step, not as fast as we would like, but we are still going, going [forward] every day, every day, gradually, gradually, we are under control of our territory. This is how it will be. We will achieve this, there should be no doubt here. And we can only give one piece of advice to our enemies: do not fight Russia. Never try to do this.”

The only slither of truth there is “not as fast as we would like,” because not only Putin but the general population of Russia would have liked to have seen a faster conquest of Ukraine. The actual truth is that’s not happening. Russian forces are not moving forward on the battlefield, in fact Russia has suffered a net loss of controlled territory in 2026.

As for “do not fight Russia. Never try to do this.” Ukraine has had the nerve to do so. Back when the Ukrainians were more dependent on imported weapons, they came with restrictions. Russian warnings of said weapons being used to strike targets in Russia leading to an escalation (supposedly to include more countries directly in the war) were a bluff. They had not the capacity to wage a wider war but they achieved their goal of cautious allies enforcing Russia’s own so-called red lines.

Ukraine has called their bluff. The aforementioned massive strikes across Moscow of 18/06 being a glaring example of this, but that comes against a backdrop of oil refineries and airfields being hit at 1,500 and 1,800 kilometers inside Russia respectively.

Remark 6

Putin: “Let’s live in peace and solve all issues through negotiations, but these should be negotiations, not ultimatums to us, which they have tried to impose on us so far. Not anymore. Now they seem to say “let’s negotiate” – yes, we agree to negotiate, but only taking into account our national interests. We will improve our capabilities, develop them and strengthen them, this is what we shall do.”

On the subject of solving the war through diplomatic means or reaching some kind of negotiated settlement, see my last article for Kyiv Post here. From Putin’s own words, “only taking into account our national interests” followed by the threat of “we will improve our capabilities, develop and strengthen them” we can see that he still tries to project a posture of a position of strength so as to finish the war on his terms. But nothing could be further from the truth. Russia is not in a position of strength vis a vis its war in Ukraine. Putin is not in a position of strength vis a vis his own throne.

The views expressed in this opinion article are the author’s and not necessarily of Kyiv Post.