The United States has warned Poland that Russia may be considering an armed provocation on Polish territory in the coming months to test NATO’s resolve and pressure Western allies to scale back support for Ukraine
According to Ukrainska Pravda, citing The Telegraph, sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said Washington had warned Warsaw that Russia was weighing scenarios that could include drone attacks on critical infrastructure, such as power plants, or a simulated large-scale air attack designed to force Poland to activate its air defenses.
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A more radical scenario could involve a hybrid attack in Poland’s border region, potentially with the participation of Belarusian forces. Russia could attempt to explain away a border violation by claiming its troops had become lost because of GPS disruption or were carrying out a rescue mission after a helicopter emergency.
The possible aim, according to the reports, would be to see whether Poland, possibly under pressure from Washington, would avoid a strong response. If Russian forces were able to return home without consequences, Moscow could present the episode as a political victory.
Another more provocative scenario reportedly discussed involves Russia making withdrawal from Polish territory conditional on halting support for Ukraine.
A fourth source, a person from security circles in the Baltic states, confirmed that such plans are allegedly indeed being discussed in Moscow. The option of framing the provocation as one that “was actually carried out by Ukraine” is also being considered.
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A source close to Nawrocki said the United States systematically informs Poland about any new Russian plans for a conventional attack on NATO’s eastern flank, which would also directly concern Poland.
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