Putin’s Ukraine Failure Could Speed Russia’s Breakup, Historian Says

Norman Davies, a British‑Polish historian known for his work on Europe, Poland and Central and Eastern Europe, spoke on TVP World’s On the Record program.  

Imperial decline 

“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin’s attempts to re‑establish the Soviet or at least the Russian Empire in a new form has been a great failure,” Davies said.  

After more than two decades in power, he argued, Putin has recovered only fragments of the former Soviet sphere while exposing the limits of Russia’s military strength. 

“This is a demonstration of Russia’s weakness,” he added, contrasting today’s forces with the Soviet Red Army of 1944‑45.  

Davies described Moscow as increasingly subordinate to Beijing, saying that “Russia is now the vassal of China.”  

He predicted that a new phase of imperial disintegration could begin in Russia’s Far East, where China dominates trade and extracts resources.  

“It’s only a matter of time before the Chinese take it back,” he said of Vladivostok, built on territory ceded by Qing‑era China to the Russian Empire in the 19th century. 

Poland and Ukraine 

Turning to the dispute over the World War II‑era Volhynia massacres, Davies said Poland’s grievances were justified but badly timed while Ukraine is fighting for survival.  

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“The Poles are absolutely right, of course, about Volhynia,” he said. “But this is just not the moment, you know, to bang the drum about historical disputes.” 

The remarks came amid renewed tensions over remembrance of the wartime Ukrainian Insurgent Army, which Poland holds responsible for the mass killings of Polish civilians in Volhynia and eastern Galicia.  

Polish and Ukrainian Catholic leaders, alongside officials, have urged both countries not to become “prisoners of the past” as they seek to balance historical justice with wartime cooperation. 

Davies said reconciliation required patience, education and “goodwill.” “It won’t happen during war,” he said. 

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