Russia’s economy is not well, leading some economists to predict that the Kremlin will stop trying to defend the ruble’s value, to keep it below 100 to the US dollar, now that the Russian presidential elections have passed.

Volodymyr Lugovskyy, an economist at Indiana University, told Kyiv Post that he is “not alone” in predicting the “ruble to fall badly within a month,” explaining that it “should have happened a long time ago, but the ruble was kept at 100 at a great cost to the Russian economy for political reasons.”

Lugovskyy said that there have been two major, recent blows to Moscows economy: up to 12 percent of Russia’s oil refineries have been damaged by Ukrainian drone strikes and that the threat of “US sanctions has made India, the major current importer of Russian seaborne oil to reconsider importing it,” noting that these “events are serious blows to Russian oil industry and domestic economy.”

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The situation has gotten so bad in Russia that one of the leading oil-producing nations has been struggling with ongoing shortages of gasoline, prompting it to institute a six month ban on the export of gasoline.

The US-based economist said this reflects the reality that “sanctions work,” adding: “They cripple Russia’s ability to produce or import things domestically to a great extent; especially technologically advanced products. Aircraft is a key example. In 2022, Russia made big declarations of substituting Western airliners with domestically produced planes, for which they got the government funding... but it went nowhere. Meanwhile, the keep flying Western aircraft at an increasing risk as they are not maintained properly, as spare parts are often not available.”

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Lugovskyy said that though “Russia still has gold with which it can buy critical imports,” it remains the case that “a decrease in oil exports and domestic consumption is a serious blow to Russian economy as it critically depends on these revenues.”

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The “Russian economy cannot survive without critical imports,” Lugovskyy said, while Moscow attempts to get the critical goods it needs in two ways: directly from China or by smuggling EU or US products through friendly neighboring countries.

He concluded that, at this stage, “many spheres of Russian economy are in decline and the state of Russian economy may further worsen if US and EU keep applying targeted sanctions against critical imports.”

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Comments (3)

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THE KYIV POST'S LEFT HAND DOES NOT KNOW WHAT'S ITS RIGHT HAND IS WRITING
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This is hilarious! And only further proves what an idiotic joke The Kyiv Post is for a legitimate news source. Up above this idiotic opinion piece of crap is an article titled: "Sanctions on Russia Are Too Weak/Ineffective" by Timothy Ash. You folks at The Kyiv Post are shameless idiots just like the moron who penned this opinion piece.
Back when the United Nations placed sanctions on Saddam Hussein prohibiting the world from purchasing Iraqi oil, Germany and France were not too keen on invading Iraq and did not join the Coalition Forces. Why not? Because in April of 2007, after the low level bureaucrats in the Iraqi Oil Ministry believed it was safe to reveal, they produced hand written ledgers showing France and Germany set up bank accounts in Aman, Jordan where they were purchasing Iraqi oil below world market prices. The New York Times has an article regarding the matter.
You folks at The Kyiv Post are just as arrogantly ignorant as the morons like John the loon from Canade, et al. who post their arrogant butt ignorant jibberish on these comment threads.

John
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@MRGA troll jack's RIGHT HAND IS busy,

Greetings troll jack. Wow another insult of a KyiPost article today? What's that ... 6 articles insulted today? Were there any you liked?

Just one correction to your above comment:

The allied coalition's Operation Desert Storm Gulf war commenced on 17 January 1991 and Kuwait was declared completely free of occupying Iraqi troops on 28 February 1991. In total 42 nations were part of the allied war coalition. France was one of these and was actively engaged during the wars full duration providing 20,000 troops, 14 ships, one CV, more than 75 aircraft, 350 tanks, & its 6th Armored Division.

The subsequent nefarious 'Oil-for-Food Programme' leaked documents though revealed the top three recipients of IRAQ oil included Russia (30%), France (15%), and China (10%) and there were numerous allegations of bride big involved to secure these oil contracts.

Awesome job in finally inserting at least some facts in a post! The other 99.9% of your solely insulting posts were getting boring.

Write soon!

JOHN THE LOON: WELL, THERE HE GOES AGAIN (IN RONALD REAGAN TONE)
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@John, Hey John the loon from Canada, GFY. I don't waste a nanosecond reading your blather. You would do us all just fine if you would just go to hell. I so wish this worthless website had a blocking feature. That would be glorious.

John
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@MRGA troll jack THE LOON: WELL, THERE HE GOES AGAIN (IN RONALD REAGAN TONE),

Thanks for spending more nano seconds reading and responding to my post troll jack. Your feedback is important so please keep reading. I put another 7 informative posts up today for your review...actually two were humorous, but it does sound like you are in need of a laugh so do read

I'm sure a blocking feature would be appreciated by Ukraine supporters, but I'm not sure how it would help the putin falsehood hate sowing MRGA movement on a Ukraine supporting website. Be cautious your bosses don't find out you are now requesting Kyivpost do this. As russia approaches its spring there will be more windows open. Best you stay on the ground floor until your mistake blows over.

Cheers.

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John
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@troll Jack THE LOON NEEDS TO TAKE CIVIL dialogue COURSE,

...and your constant insults of all other Ukraine supporters and Kyivpost authors reflects what about you 'jack?

For the newer readers it will be revealing you don't like comments referencing the evil putin regime.. Oversight perhaps?

The important thing is I'm still having fun exposing MRGA's trolls and regardless will continue supporting Ukraine however possible in my spare time.

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John
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Its well established that further Ukraine aid from the USA remains stalled due to putinrump's MRGA minions in the House....and an equally shocking non-MRGA aligned bipartisans failure to sideline these US House traitors.


However as it waits, the Biden administration at least continues to expand sanctions against russia and its allies. They now doe this by broadening sanctions to include penalties for putin sanction busters like India, Turkey, Hungary, Slovakia, China.

The ruble shortly progresses towards rouble. Russia's need to feel the pain they deserve for the leadership choice they made.

The growing russian anti-putin movement needs to also leverage his economically suffering electorate. Waiting 6 more years would be ludicrous. Even if the weak minded masses in russia only riot over the inflated price of basic commodities, its still a win if it results in putin's dethronement.

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