The Russian commander of the “Vostok” Battalion fighting in southern Ukraine said on Thursday that Ukraine will not be defeated and suggested that Russia freeze the war along current frontlines.
Alexander Khodakovsky made the candid concession yesterday on his Telegram channel after Russian forces, including his own troops, were devastatingly defeated by Ukrainian marines earlier this week at Urozhaine in the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk regional border area.
“Can we bring down Ukraine militarily? Now and in the near future, no,” Khodakovsky, a former official of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, said yesterday.
“When I talk to myself about our destiny in this war, I mean that we will not crawl forward, like the [Ukrainians], turning everything into [destroyed] Bakhmuts in our path. And, I do not foresee the easy occupation of cities,” he said.
“We can [though] enter a phase that is most unfavorable for Ukraine in its ‘independent’ state: a phase of neither peace nor war. We could be in this phase if, instead of the special military operation, the [currently occupied] territories were recognized and officially taken under guardianship. But it would require a completely different twist of history,” Khodakovsky said.
Khodakovsky also concluded on Telegram that the likely eventual outcome of the war is some form of “truce.”
The well-regarded think-tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), assessed Khodakovsky’s comments in the context of: a) on-going power struggles among Kremlin elites, and; b) the practical consequences of recent battlefield set-backs for the unit that he personally formed in 2014.
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ISW said in its daily campaign assessment that Khodakovsky was “reintroducing a narrative that had been largely dormant since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s armed rebellion.”
In April, Prigozhin stated that Russia should freeze the war in Ukraine to set conditions for a future victory without negotiations.
ISW said that “Russian sources have periodically claimed that a Kremlin faction is interested in freezing the war along the current frontlines for similar reasons, as well as over concerns about domestic political stability and the economic fallout from the war.”
“Khodakovsky may be reintroducing the narrative into the Russian information space on behalf of the faction allegedly interested in freezing the war, although Khodakovsky likely has limited influence on the Russian leadership itself,” ISW said.
At a practical level, ISW further believes that Khodakovsky’s comments reveal that recent Ukrainian advances may be significantly weakening confidence in the Russian defense along the wider front in southern Ukraine.
Khodakovsky has previously highlighted concerns about the Russian defense in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia regional border area, specifically relating to poor Russian counterbattery capabilities, heavy Russian losses, exhausted Russian forces, and a lack of reserves, ISW noted, and that he has previously called for an operational pause so that Russian forces could reinforce for future operations.
“Khodakovsky’s escalation from calling for an operational pause to suggesting that Russia freeze the conflict is likely associated with his firsthand experience of recent tactically significant Ukrainian advances and the degradation of defending Russian forces in Urozhaine,” ISW said.
Urozhaine is the 10th village and southern most point taken by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since the beginning of the summer offensive in early June.
Khodakovsky is a former commander of Ukraine’s Alpha special unit of the Security Service of Ukraine.
During Russia’s take-over of Donbas in 2014, he was part of local “insurgency” efforts, defected to Russia, and then served for a period as the security minister in the illegitimately created Donetsk People’s Republic.
In December 2022, Khodakovsky was reported to say that the only way Russia can win the war against Ukraine would be using nuclear weapons.
During fighting for Urozhaine, Khodakovsky alternately complained about a lack of equipment and reinforcements from the Russian general command, and then asserted that the “Vostok” Battalion alone would defend the “stronghold” against elite Ukrainian marines.
Fighting for the village began on Aug. 6, 2023, and Khodakovsky announced that the Vostok Brigade would be withdrawing from the village on Aug. 15, stating that “their defensive position had become untenable.”
Video of Russian soldiers hastily retreating on foot from Urozhaine and being devastatingly shelled with cluster ammunitions from Ukrainian artillery went viral.
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Comments (18)
Probably the scariest thing I’ve heard Russia “say” as it puts the west in a position it doesn’t realize of Russia doing the unthinkable
Yes Ruzzia, freeze the front and stop fighting while Ukraine continues to fight. lol
Go Ukraine. Fuck Trump and Putin, lie til they died, greed no loyalty to their countries only themselves.
Ukrainians won't agree to freeze the front.
Russia must realise that while Russians are fighting to conquer a sovereign state the borders of which Russia had guranteed and has now violated, the Ukranians are fighting for their country, their homeland. Who might you expect. to be more motivated?
Consider also how well the Russians have treated the Ukranians. Their soldiers have raped and murdered, stolen thousands of children and destroyed property and businesses. Worst of all, they are trying to steal a country. The war will not end until the Russians have been expelled from all of Ukraine and those stolen Ukranian children returned. And even then, there will be reparations due to be paid. With interest.
I haven't seen so much clowns gathered on one comment section!
So Putins vanity kill and maim 500,000 people and you want to stop because your side is loosing? I think not. However too many are still dying. I would not be surprised if Putins last name was really Hitler.
Nice idea but no offense the UN is useless Russia is on the security council can you believe it? They would veto it. Russia needs to go away and deal with its mafia style leadership if they don't they get what the deserve.
Everybody wants a total victory for Ukraine. It will cost at least 100,000 more dead. Why don't we negotiate a neutral state in Eastern Ukraine, weapons free, guarded by United Nations troops. Ukraine doesn't need those scoundrels in their beautiful nation anyway!
I think you have a typo in Khodakovsky’s comment about bakhmut. His criticism is directed towards wagner instead of ukrainians. Russian state media vilified the criminal organization for destroying bakhmut as they moved forward and in turn Putin’s right to fool all into believing it was being liberated.
Russia may want to freeze the line where it is but that's not going to happen. Ukraine pilots are about to start training on the f16 if they haven't already. American made tanks are on the way. We just gave cluster munitions and another 200 million in military aid is on the way. Most of us here in the United States appreciate what the Ukraine people and the country is doing. Just keep up the pressure and I do believe victory will be yours.
NOW Ruskies want to stop fighting and negotiate, now that Ukraine Armed Forces are sure to take the Sea of Azov coastline, which means that Crimea will have no military supply routes. They are disgusting. Russians kill, torture, destroy, and commit unspeakable crimes, and now they want to talk? Eff them. They need to get the eff out of Ukraine and then pay Ukraine for all of the damages. ALL OF THE DAMAGES. And they need to hand Putin over to the Hague for his crimes, and those who committed war crimes need to be punished. Until all of this happens, no effing way should Ukraine capitulate. Russia needs to be totally stopped and defanged so that this can never happen again.
Why should the Ukraine freeze the line the Russians will dig in more. We should not presure the Ukraine in its counter offensive because we denied them F16s and making any cease fire means the Russia can still attack at anytime.
Not for you to decide on a pause, the Ukrainians are coming whether you like it or not.
No concessions only total victory, only then will Ukrainian future generations be able to live in peace.
Do I see a crack in the Russian armour? I think so.
Here is the situation in a nutshell:
Russia invaded its neighbour who was friendly with the West. Ukraine fought back. Essentially, NATO is fighting Russia using the Ukraine military apparatus. NATO has not yet used all its military equipment, but essentially, Russia is in a no-win situation unless they use nuclear weapons.
In retrospect, would Russia have made a different decision? You bet your sweet bippy.
@Imokru2, No true military analyst worth their salt agrees with the scenario that the orcs would win the war ( whatever that means ) by deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of Ukraine. It's a fallacy. There are far too many unknown variables that would mitigate the benefits for poohtie of using such extreme measures, not least of which is NATO's absolute necessity to destroy whatever remains of russian ground forces and Black Sea fleet, just for starters. This action would be essential and simply could not be avoided under the circumstances. Anything less than that stern response from the West would precipitate and condone an appalling precedent that would be lapped up by Russia again, as well their rogue autocratic bum chums in Central and Eastern Asia. So, to correct your statements, unless by some imminent miracle, the ineffectual Russian military quickly advances to the legitimate administrative borders of the four oblasts putler illegally annexed and erects a new iron curtain, the pariah " North Korea of the North " is in a no win situation, with no escape route and alternative outcome other than humiliating defeat.
Russian officers said "We cannot win" in 1914 and they still kept going until 10 million were killed wounded or captured. I'm afraid a lot more people are going to have to suffer before Poo-poo admits someone, who isn't him, made a mistake and asks NATO to pressure Ukraine into accepting the borders before the 2022 attack
@Simon,
Suppose, your neighbor attacks your house. Takes half of it, assaults your family members including women and children. Then wants to negotiate. Would you accept?
@Ashok, Never. No honour, no life.
@Simon, It's not 1914 any more and the world has lost its appetite for senseless slaughter.
@trent, I wish that where true history is violent.
Freezing the current conflict us only delaying another future Russian invasion when they have had time to recover and re-equipe??.....the West must give Ukraine F16s and ATACMS and Taurus missiles and Ukraine will break through to the Azov sea before next winter and they can then isolate Crimea by destroying Kerch bridge ....Currently the Wests reluctance to give Ukraine the tools to do the job is causing avoidable casualties to Ukraine and , correctly in my view, slowing pace of counter offensive to minimise Ukraian losses?